| Public health insurance is one of the most important issues in economics. Along with the development of the socio-economic, "three issues in rural " have highlighted, in order to ease the farmers'problems, that a lot of farmers became poor for the first time or became poor again due to illness, the Chinese Government proposed that we should establish a new rural cooperative medical system.In October 2002, the CPC Central Committee, the State Council issued the "the decision to strengthen rural health work further", put forward a clear step by step in the country to establish a new rural cooperative medical system and to identify "in 2010 to cover the basic rural residents". In January 2003, the General Office of the State Council transmitted, such as the Ministry of Health to develop "on the establishment of a new type of rural cooperative medical system" from the beginning of the second half of 2003, the provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) have launched a pilot project. However, the results are from the point of view, China is the pilot of a new type of rural cooperative medical service coverage in rural areas is only about 20% of the population, and the level of financing is not high, security is not strong. In order to achieve 2008 throughout the country basically popularizing a new type of rural cooperative medical system in rural areas the target is still great challenges. There is low coverage, low level of financing problems. Improve the new rural cooperative medical fund use efficiency and the rate of insurance is a new type rural cooperative medical system in the implementation of the urgent need to be addressed.The concept of micro-simulation model is the first by the United States Orcutt, a professor at Yale University in 1957 put forward for decision-making departments to assist the Government in the formulation and revision of the social and economic policy. In the major Western developed countries, with the computer simulation technology, as well as the Census and Statistics Department's data on the micro scope of the investigation has become an increasingly widespread, micro - Concept model in terms of taxation, social welfare, health and education, as well as in economic policy and legislation related to the distribution policy plays an increasingly important role. Become a national policy analysis and an indispensable tool.In China, public policy design and evaluation of the need to support macro-economic model, but the traditional macro-economic model due to the typical individual analysis of the pattern or mode of analysis of the total, not because of micro-analysis of individual state led to changes in the financial effects. Micro-simulation model will undoubtedly contribute to the analysis and assessment of China's reform and measures. Therefore, it is necessary to learn from foreign experience and technology in China to accelerate the development and application of micro-analysis of the simulation model, and applied to the analysis of China's medical insurance system.Taking into account the characteristics of China's national conditions and the implementation of the medical insurance system for urban workers relative to the mandatory medical insurance policies for farmers, to adopt the principle of voluntary insurance. As a result, studies the impact of acts of insured farmers, have a direct impact on the new rural cooperative medical effects of the implementation.Asenso-Okyere through the use of a first order of the probit model to study the health insurance Ghana insurance factor. Subsequently, probit model is widely used in the health insurance act insurance factors analysis. And, as the study of the problem with in-depth research, academics and the general use of logistic model.In this paper, the development of a dynamic micro-simulation model, according to the China Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (CHNS), China analysis in 2008 of the new rural cooperative medical system in the next three years arising from the implementation of the results and financial effects. In the model, the most important parameters for the farmers of the insurance factor. In response to these factors affect the micro-state of the individual as well as changes in insurance acts simulation.Farmers in the study of the impact of insurance factors, using logistic model for binary regression analysis. The study found that the micro individual's age, health status, family status, such as household income, family assets, family size, region, as well as individual acts of the insured have a significant impact. And found that in rural areas, increases with age, the possibility of higher insurance, insurance of the elderly aged over the possibility of less than 35-year-old high 9.7 percent, than the middle-aged younger than 35-year-old Senate Security high rate of 2.8 percent; Moreover, the worse health status, the greater the possibility of insurance. Because they will face higher risk of medical expenses; for, family status, the results show that the more the population, but more people do not want to participate in the insurance; There is no doubt that the ability to pay is an important decision insured Considerations. And we expect the same, family income and family assets of these two factors is the correlation coefficient. In other words, have a higher household income and family assets, the greater the possibility of participating in insurance; from the geographical factors, in rural, eastern and north-eastern region of the possibility of insurance was significantly higher than in the central and West. However, outside the village in the suburbs, central and western part of the possibility of insurance was significantly higher than in the eastern and north-east.The results from the point of view, to consider the impact of other factors such as sex, education, chronic diseases, such as the impact on the employment situation, although the results are not significant return, but also reflects the behavior between the insured and the relationship between positive and negative.Insurance against acts of the impact of these factors, micro-insurance individual acts carried out a micro-simulation. In the micro-simulation model, this paper established a simulation of three modules: micro-state of individual modules, as well as medical insurance module module. The treatment module, divided into patient-specific modules and in-patient module. Micro-state in the individual modules of micro-state of the individual to change year by year; insurance and micro-simulation module insured individual decision; Finally, in the treatment of individual micro-simulation module out-patient clinic and hospital medical act. After a year of simulation and natural accumulation, found that from the results of the simulation, the new rural cooperative medical system developed by the more reasonable. However, although co-ordinating fund balance decreased, but the difference is still larger. From the balance of payments, the balance of the slightly goal is still a considerable gap. As a result, the forthcoming introduction of the new rural cooperative medical system reform and development program, could be considered appropriate to increase the ratio of claims to insurance rates to increase and improve the new rural cooperative medical insurance fund and Manpower... |
PDF Full Text Request