Analyze And Forecast Research On Chinese National Health Expenditure In GDP

ObjectiveBy analyzing the feature,regulation and influencing factors of Chinese NHE,this research aims to forecast the trend of NHE with the aid of combination forecast model. On basis of this,the paper concentrates on the discussion of the relationship between NHE and GDP,the significance and future trend of the proportion of NHE in GDP,and the comparison of this proportion with international level. Then we further analyze the prime influential factors of this proportion will be made and propose the relative policy according to these factors.MethodsThrough the usage of theories and methods such as health service administration,health economics,health policy administration and health statistics,this paper makes a short-term forecast of the proportion of Chinese NHE in GDP as a whole,and further investigates the feature,regulation,influencing factors and trend of Chinese NHE. The main methods used in this paper include: (1) Literature Methodology; (2) Criterion Analysis Methodology; (3) Combination Forecast Methodology. Statistics software such as Excel2000,SPSS11.5 and Eviews are also used to analyze and calculate the data.Conclusion1. The research findings of the relationship between National Health Expenditure (NHE) and GDP: (1) There is an inseparable relationship between National Health Expenditure (NHE) and GDP: The two indicators range from 5% to 15% since 1978. This status reflects that our government is actively seeking a point of development balance in order to make the development of health economy adapt and coordinate the development of national economy. (2) The proportion of National Health Expenditure in GDP is a key indicator which reflects the extent the country is concerned about health. This indictor shows a wave—like in our country,however,growth retardation.(3) Our country uses 2% of the world health resource to solve medical and health care of 22% of the world population,which reflects our country lack of health resource. Based on experience,the proportion of National Health Expenditure in GDP should be controlled around 5% and elasticity coefficient should be maintained around 1.2,which relatively meets the essential situation of China.2. The influencing factors in variation on the proportion of NHE in GDP: (1) Financing Structure (2) Population Aging (3) Variation on Disease Spectrum (4) Development of Medical Science and Technology,Health Technique Service Concentration (5) Medicine Consumption.3. Forecast results on future trend of the proportion of National Health Expenditure in the GDP: (1) Multiple Linear Regression Model forecast: This model is greatly impacted by the external environment. Only if the assumed conditions don't change,the predicted value of proportion of National Health Expenditure in GDP is 4.725% in 2006,and the predicted value is 4.944% in 2010. (2)ARMA Model forecast: this model is only related with time and the fitting degree of the ARMA model is very well. The predicted value of proportion of National Health expenditure in GDP is 4.589% in 2006 and the predicted value is 4.467% in 2010. (3)Combination Model forecast: make full use of the information of the two models to establish a combination model,which is used to forecast the proportion of National Health Resource in GDP in the future five years. The forecast result is the predicted value will increase from 4.641% in 2006 to 4.648% in 2010. There is still a certain gap between predicted value and ideal value,which shows the investment in health is inadequate in our country.4. Some proposals for the development of NHE: (1) increase government's health service payout (2) establish the health insurance system for all the people (3) reinforce precautionary measures to prevent chronic disease and reduce morbidity (4) encourage utilization of suitable medical technology and basic-level medical facilities (5) reduce medicine consumption and lower the proportion of medicine expenses in NHE as a whole.