Study On Current Situation Of Tuberculosis Control Program And Its Trend Prediction In Jiuyuan District Of Baotou

BACKGROUNDThe tuberculosis(TB) was a contagious disease caused by the Bacillus tuberculosis and it threatened human's health seriously. The epidemic situation of TB showed an increasing trend and World Health Organization declared that it was in an emergency condition. China was one of top 22 TB disease burden countries in the world. In China,80% of the TB disease patients lived in rural areas. TB has resulted in poverty in the rural areas and it had become one of the great diseases that limited the development of the society and economy in the rural areas, especially in poor areas.TB once was one of the diseases that had been controlled in China. The Directly Observed Treatment Short Course (DOTS) strategy recommend by WHO was the most cost-effective strategy. We have got remarkable achievements in the process of implementing DOTS, but there were some regional disparity in effectiveness. The results of the 4th Investigation of TB Disease Epidemic Situation in 2000 indicated that the prevalence of the TB disease in the 12 western districts was twice higher than in the eastern districts, and the epidemic situations in the 12 western districts were serious. The Jiuyuan district was rural area in the city of Baotou in the Inner Mongolia and the majority population were peasants and herdsmen in this area. The prevalence rate of the TB disease was high in the area. OBJECTIVBESThe purpose of the study was to provide scientific bases for making the policy of the TB disease prevention and cure, and to control the TB disease effectively in Jiuyuan district. We used the retrospective analysis method to analyze the registration data of TB patients during the past 5 years in the area in the study. We got the message of epidemic situation of the TB disease and evaluated the control effectiveness of it and predicted the epidemic trend of it.METHODOLGYThe data was from Center of the TB Control and Prevention of Jiuyuan district. We used retrospective analysis method to analyze the data of TB patients from year 2004 to 2008, and use Grey model(1,1) to predict the epidemic situation of TB prevalence. The data was analysed by EXCEL.MAIN RESULTSDuring carrying out the program from the year 2004 to 2008, we received 2625 cases of the suspicious patients with the TB disease in total. There were 462 smear positive cases and among them 408 cases were first infection, and 54 cases were relapse or other else. There were 402 negative cases and 810 first registered cases.From the year 2004 to 2008, the registration rate of the first smear positive cases per year was 30.85/100000,37.25/100000,39.57/100000,39.82/100000 and 41.78/10000 respectively, and it presented an increasing trend; the average rate per year was 37.85/100000. The rate of male and female was 61.25% and 38.75%, respectively. The rate of 0～14 old years,15～54 old years and above 55 old years was 0.92%,62.23% and 36.85%, respectively.The average cure rate of the smear positive cases of first infection and the relapse was 94.63% and 82.58%, respectively, and the average rate per year was 92.46%. The negative conversion rate of the initial treat and retreat cases was 88.7% and 75.8% respectively in the end of February; and 92.8% and 88.3% respectively in the end of March. The TB disease had a high cure rate. The registration rate of the first smear positive cases would be 43.19/100000, 44.71/100000,46.30/100000,47.95/100000, and 49.65/100000 respectively from the year 2009 to 2013 predicted by the grey model, and it presented an increasing trend.CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONSThe epidemic situation of TB was in a low and steady state, but the registration rate of the smear positive cases presented an increasing trend year by year; and it was high in the young male.The following five indexes achieved the requirements according to TB control program:the coverage rate of the TB disease control, the detection rate, the registration rate of the smear positive cases, the negative conversion rate and the cure rate. The infection sources and epidemic situation had been well controlled, and protected the susceptible population. This program had promoted the economic construction in the area, and improved the health level and life quality of the people, and achieved tremendous social benefits and economic benefits.The epidemic situation indicated that the TB disease was in a low and steady state, but the incidence rate presented a slight increasing trend. So we need to attach great importance to the prevention and cure of TB patients, and to improve the management of TB, and to strengthen supervision of short-term chemotherapy, and to strengthen the institutional capacity building to improve the detection rate and cure rate of TB patients, and to decrease the infection rate, incidence rate and mortality rate of TB disease, and to improve people's health.