The Study On The Analysis Of Tuberculosis Epidemic Situation Between 1991 And 2003 And Prediction Of Incidence Rate In Wujin District Area

Objective: This study was aiming to understand the epidemic situation trend and epidemiological characteristics of tuberculosis in Wujin district in the past 13 years (1991-2003). We predicted the epidemic situation of the disease from 2004 to 2008 based on the data of incidence rates in the previous 13 years. This prediction provided a scientific decision-making for establishing prevention measures from tuberculosis. Method: Using the retrospective investigation methodology, we analyzed the data of tuberculosis incidence rates from 1991 to 2003 in Wujin district. The future incidence rates of the disease were predicted by the Grey model (1,1), exponential curve predictive model, and cubic curve predictive model of the time series methodology. Result: In the past of 13 years, the incidence rates of tuberculosis in Wujin district were kept in the scale of 42.21/100,000 to 61.96/100,000 per year. The average incidence rate per year was 49.28/100, 000, the rates for male and female were 71.68/100,000 and 26.47/100,000 respectively. There was a significant difference for the rate between male and female(χ~2=1573.53, P<0.01) Among the age groups, the highest incidence rate was in the groups whose ages were larger than 50 years old. The proportions of the type III, type V and other 3 types for the disease were 89.54%, 7.44% and 3.02% respectively. For the occupation distribution, peasants were the main incidence population and accounted for 83.24%. The testing rate of phlegm in the new incidence cases was 85.86%. The positive rate for tuberculosis bacteria was 21.73%. The predictive incidence rates of tuberculosis from 2004 to 2008 in Wujin district were estimated as 60.73, 62.38, 64.09, 65.84 and 67.63 per 100,000 after using Grey model (1,1); the exponential model's predictive results for the 5 future years were 60.13, 61.69, 63.29, 64.94 and 66.62 per 100,000;the cubic curve model's predictive results were 63.07, 65.72, 68.54,71.50 and 74.61 per 100,000. Conclusion: Although the incidence rates of the tuberculosis in Wujin district were kept in lower level, it was slightly increasing year by year from our predicting results. There were some weak fields in our works preventing from the disease. Our study indicated that we should take some measures to further prevent from the tuberculosis such as establishing a department specially administering the prevention work, improving the finding rate of the disease, phlegm testing rate of the tuberculosis bacteria and the positive rate of the tuberculosis bacteria, enlarging the number of the patients who could receive the short-term and supervised chemo-treatment, focusing on the tuberculosis prevention of the countryside population and the middle-aged and elder people.