Time Trends Of Tetal Macrosomia Birthrate And Newborn Birth Weight 1991-2009, Huangdao District, Qingdao, And Risk Factors Of Fetal Macrosomia

ObjectiveTo describe time trends of fetal macrosomia birthrate and birth weight in huangdao district of Qingdao from 1991-2009 and identify the risk factors of fetal macrosomia.MethodsUsed the census method, To investigate the time trends of macrosomia birthrate and newborn birth weight in Huangdao District of Qingdao City from 1991 to 2009.Used the linear regression model and Box-Jenkins approach to fit autoregressive integrated (ARI) models to describe the patterns and the time trends of macrosomia birthrate and newborn birth weight. Then, we used the fitted model to forecast macrosomia birthrate and newborn birth weight from 2010 to 2012. Logistic regression was used to analyze the risk factors of fetal macrosomia.ResultsFetal macrosomia birthrate had increased dramatically in Huangdao District of Qingdao City during the past two decades from 9.22% (1991) to 16.17% (2009) by 75.39%. Fetal macrosomia birthrate is about 15% in three years. Fetal macrosomia birthrate is very big fluctuation between various months,the lowest is 4.71%,the highest is 20.16%, The seasonal trend is not very obvious. The newborn birth weight had increased significantly during the 20-year period between 1991 and 2009 from 3358g to 3459g by 114g. In the near future, the fetal macrosomia birthrate and newborn birth weight would still increase. It will reach 3,480g in 2012.Single-and multiple-factor Non-conditional Logistic regression analysis was used to analyze the data. Logistic regression results suggested that the pregnancy age, prepregnancy BMI, body weight gain in gestation period, diabetes mellitus, much amniotic fluid, maternal age, gender of infants. Boys is the more than girls; The risk of fetal macrosomia birthrate is 1.275 times in pregnant women over 35 years old than in those of pregnant women 22-34 years old;. Overweight before pregnancy giving birth to macrosomia easier than pregnant women with normal; The risk of weight gain more than 18kg of pregnant women to deliver macrosomia is 2.454 times than body weight gain 9-17kg in gestation period; The risk of more than 42 weeks of pregnancy is 2.03 times than 37 to 41 weeks of pregnancy.ConclusionsFetal macrosomia birthrate had increased dramatically in Huangdao District of Qingdao City during the past two decades. The incidence of fetal macrosomia is associated with many factors. The perinatal health care and nutrition education should be enhanced to reduce the labor of fetal macrosomia infants.