Study On The Effect Evaluation And Influence Of Infectious Diseases Early Warning In Haikou

At present, establishment of automatic early warning system in the infectious diseases, which is based on the real-time reporting information of infectious diseases and historical epidemic data, can boost early-warning capabilities in the monitoring of infectious diseases epidemic in our country, thereby it can diminish the impact on the human's well-being and the socio-economic developments from infectious diseases. However, the possible influential factors of early warning effect have been analysed deeply through the related explorations and retrospective validation studies. In addition, evaluation studies of early warning systems have made progress, but how to analyze comprehensively and balance the evaluation contents as well as their indexes, and then how to effectively apply to evaluate our existing early warning system in the infectious diseases outbreak were still needed to carry out the further practice and research.The thesis carried out the descriptive analysis chiefly through five aspects, which were the reporting information quality of infetious diseases in Haikou fom 2004 to 2009,the reporting quality of event-related infectious diseases cases, the history reporting level, the occupational distribution of reporters on the public health emergency events and the basic situation of the application in the system repectively, combined with the the exceptional case analysis of early warning charts,in order to explore the influential factors of the system. The evaluation indicators of alert effect were sensitivity, positive prediction value and the lead time, which were for the evaluation of the running early-warning system.The conclusions can be drawn: 1. The reporting quality is one of the important influence factors on the effect of early-warning. 2. The historical reports level of the infectious diseases, to some extent, also affect the effect of early-warning, but it doesn't influnce the effect of the the single case disease early-warning. 3. The performance of the infectious disease prevention and control in school has a certain influence in the effect of early-warning, more importance should be attatched to strengthen the school emergency staffing and training, in order to improve the timely report. 4. At present, the early-warning system does not pay more attention to the spatial attributes of data, so that it can not implement the early-warning in the spatial and time attributes simultaneously, therefore the accuracy of early- warning is not so high. 5. According to the needs of different infectious diseases, the system should improve the parameters setting and mode of the early warning constantly, so that it can increase the sensitivity eventually. 6. Chickenpox as a non-statutory infectious disease have not been incorporated in the automatic early-warning system, but the disease is highly contagious that it can trigger an outbreak especially in the school or other specific environment.It is necessary to be added into the early warning systems for such infectious diseases. 7. For the local rare or the less occured infectious diseases, and nearly five years non-reporting diseases such as dengue fever, they should be adjusted to a single case of early-warning disease in the early-warning system, according to the actual situation of the area. 8. At present, too much ineffective warnings in the early warning systems put more unnecessary workloads to the staffs.This study provides some scientific evidence for optimizing the early-warning system and also provides the reference for the relevant research in this aspect studied by some scholars.