| Medical device industry is a multi-disciplinary, knowledge-intensive, capital-intensive high-tech industry. In recent years, the economies scale of medical device industry gradually has been expanded. New technologies and new products are emerging. Medical equipment industry has become an important part of China's advanced manufacturing industry. Domestic medical device products gradually goes to a direction as the multi-functional orientation, the product structure is being adjusted. The market also will be expanded. But the medical device industry is also closely related with science and technology. A new technology, new invention could cause dramatic changes in the industry.But we don't always grasp the correct direction of development of the medical device industry. Many enterprises and institutions lost a lot of money or even went bankrupt, because of the misjudgment of the market and the development of future technologies. Today, some experts have designed many forecast evaluation models and expert systems to help people make judgments and predictions for the future. For example, in the economic field the intelligent expert system is used in stock selection, corporate risk assessment and so on. Facing such a large market of medical device industry, building a medical device industry evaluation system is very useful for enterprises, medical institutions, and investment institutions, which can timely access the relevant information and can identify the current hot issues and can make a reasonable and correct assessment to the study.Firstly, this paper describes the status of the medical device industry and the common assessment methods and analyzes the advantages and disadvantages of the existing methods. Then it analyzes the factors which impact the development of the medical device industry and different factors which were analyzed and selected.Secondly, in chapter 3, the medical equipment development evaluation system was designed and which's structural framework and workflow were illustrated.Thirdly, in chapter 4, the flexible inference and inference were introduced and which's performance were detailed analyzed. On this basis, an improved weighted algorithm and the improved D-S evidence combination were proposed.Finally, in chapter 5, a model of development evaluation in medical device industry was proposed and the model was simulated in Microsoft Visual studio environment. Through the analysis of simulation results, it show that the improved weighted algorithm and the improved D-S evidence has better adjustability and the model has low complexity, good flexibility and effectiveness. |