Cognitive Philosophy Analysis Of The Judgment Under Uncertainty

This thesis mainly researches the graceful thought of the 2002 Nobel Prize for economics winner, Daniel Kahneman of the psychologist " —heuristics and biases " and prospect theory, his innovation method, theoretical foundation and knowledge background . On the comparing basis of the thing that forefathers have made and contributed, the thesis have given the further appraisal on philosophy and pointed out its great meaning of achievement and contribution in the field of philosophy and cognitive scientific.Daniel Kahneman thinks that the meaning of "heuristics and biases " is that people will adopt some thinking shortcuts when facing uncertain situation and making judgment, the thinking shortcut will help people to make the judgment rapidly, Including representation, availability, adjustment and anchor, 3 mainly among them.Later, Daniel Kahneman put forward prospect theory shaking educational circles again. He drew support from the early expectation utility theory, utilized a large number of psychological experiments and psychological analytic approaches, and took with the method ofdescriptive ways combined with mathematics and physics models. He systematically researched the people's behavior rules while facing uncertain conditions, such as losses or income etc. These two achievements are Daniel Kahneman's main contributions that win the Nobel Prize in future too.The theory verifies that people don't follow the rule of reason calculation totally when making judgment under uncertainty, thus reaching maximize utility, and points out that people more lie on principles of " cognitive economical" and other factors, such as experience, memory, intuition, emotion, etc. This leads to the fact that systemic biases has appeared in the people's judging results.This theory and the traditional rationalism ideas of occupying the leading position totally is ran counter to. It breaks the assumption of the complete rational agent and makes us known to human's essence again. This result of studies is not only suitable for the judgment of the monetary forms but also for other non- monetary forms, for instance the public affairs.Therefore, Daniel Kahneman'thought is on the basis of the thing that cognitive science is developing constantly, drawing the abundant thought kernel among them, and summarizing the advantages and weak points of the rule of judgments that forefathers have made. He has constructed a theory frame that is full of more human natures and mankind's values finally.The research results have produced heavy influences in psychological field and cognitive scientific field firstly, and expanded to economics^ management and other fields gradually later, it is prospect theory that solved a lot of abnormal phenomena that difficultly solved in the economics , management field, such as Allies' paradox, and that started a new discipline of behavior economics.So, as we are all known, by the look of respects, such as rigorousness of the content, innovation of methods and uniqueness of the visual angle, etc, Daniel Kahenman 's graceful thought is worth for us to learn and draw lessons from it. The research of the thesis indicates that the research of "people and their behaviors" is not merely the foundation of economics. It is the foundations of other disciplines too. His theory starts a new visual angle of psychology not merely, and people's cognitive mechanism at the same time is to have further deeply study to specify. To sociology, philosophy and ethics ,on the base of the research of human's nature, we have to examine those simplified and abstract presuppositions of the good and the evil, reason and unreason on human closely again.Later, this thesis indicates the basic of cognitive psychology about that Daniel Kahneman 's graceful thought was produced further, Sketches the cognitive psychology evolution, provides two kinds of the main cognitive views especially: Symbolism and connectionism, and briefs to summarize parallel processing and serial processing cognitive ways. Two views offer the solid scientific foundation for...