Study On Space-time Difference Of Human Development In China

This paper had characteristics of interdiscipline of many subjects such as sociology; economy; environmentology; ecology and geography and it relatively comprehensive revealed provincial difference and urban-rural difference in Chinese human development. In the way of spatial statistics and spatial Markov chain, it probed into the spatial relation model and builds the prediction model of time-space evolution in province scale. Using spatial statistics; GIS; spatial analysis and ESDA, it initially revealed time-space characteristics and law of time-space evolution in Chinese human development evolution and put forward effective strategy to narrow the provincial and urban-rural difference in Chinese human development.Firstly, there was great progress in Chinese human development in the past 50 years since the Open Door, especially in the past 20 years. But compared to the world average level, China was in the medium developing level. In the past 20 years since the Open door, regional pattern of Chinese human development fundamentally changed. GIS and ESDA were used to study spatial distribution of the corrected death level so as to explore its spatial and evolvement characteristics. The research showed that there existed spatial autocorrelation about death level in all provinces since 1980s, but its degree reduced over time. And this result suggested that diversification force enhanced. From Moran scatter figure and LISA figure, we saw that there was remarkably spatial autocorrelation and heterogeneity. The spatial heterogeneity present as provinces with higher life expectation converges in the East, provinces with the lower life expectation in the west, and the spatial agglomeration feature existed since the year of 1980.To explore the spatial variation law of the single human development index will provides scientific basis to narrow the regional difference in human development.Secondly, based on human development index, we added ecological factor to fully estimate urban-rural difference since the year of 1990. The result showed that using different index to estimate urban-rural difference, there was great difference in the results. Using average personal income index; human developmental index and ecological-human developmental index to estimate this difference respectively, we found that the difference becomed smaller, and economic development gap and ecological-economic development were the key contribution factors, because that since the Open Door, Chinese government overemphasized economic growth, but ignored resources environment problems and inconsistent urban-rural development. The research results showed that the primary task for the government was to develop urban-rural economy. Moreover, the first problem considered for the government was to transform traditional developmental model, to build resource-saving and environment-friendly society and decrease ecological cost in the economic development.Thirdly, the prediction of traditional Markov chain was that study regions were independent, and traditional Markov chain ignored influence of spatial background to the progress of space dynamic evolution. Spatial Markov chain solved the interaction among regions through spatial weight matrix. By means of the concept of spatial lag, we defined the spatial field state of every region which provided means to estimate the influence of the neighbored area to the study object. The results showed that there were obvious club convergence phenomena in Chinese provincial human developmental progress. The development of one province was influenced by provinces neighbored. Therefore, Chinese developmental type should transform to the service-oriented from economic growth type. Government should drive the development of education and hygiene in order to drive Chinese regional human development to the higher level.