Regularity Analysis Of Oil Freight Market

Oil freight market is so volatile that anyone engaged in tanker industry must come to term with the speed with which the market can change. In fact,what really matters is not forecasting the future far ahead,but reading the signs that the market is turning before others and taking the appropriate action.With this objective in mind,this paper concentrated on the regularity analysis of the oil freight market. Firstly,this paper investigated the world oil demand and tonnage supply. Then the paper investigated the regularity of different oil indices using time series statistical analysis method,which suggested that there are some regular components in it,including long-term secular trend,seasonal component and long-term cyclical component. The irregular component also plays an important part in it,mainly including the policy of OPEC,war,all kinds of international convention for the prevention of pollution from tankers and so on. And then a study of simulation and forecasting performance of ARIMA time series model was conducted to crude oil indices,evidence shows that ARIMA model performs better,especially for short-term forecasting. Finally,the paper classified the oil freight market index system into prior index group and posterior index group with cluster analysis method,furthermore,the prior index group and posterior index group were changed into 5 main factors with factor analysis method,which including prior synthesis factor,oil demand factor,oil price factor,invalid tonnage factor,tonnage supply factor. By using these 5 factors,we can analysis the oil freight market more clearly and effectively.