Shipping Finance Engineering Tools Application--Research On The Method Of Avoiding Risk On The Rate Fluctuation Of Instant Dry Bulk Shipping

Operation risk always exists owing to price fluctuate in any market economy activity, especially instant dry bulk spot market, which rate fluctuates more frequently because of itself market characteristic. If the risk cannot be avoided or handled with effectively, the operator will hardly confirm the cost and profits. Management instability thus increases. However, the tools provided by finance engineering resolve the problem of avoiding the risk on the basis of market analysis.The thesis begins with the general concept, characteristic and the core question the tools resolved of finance engineering to discuss its applicability on shipping field. Next from the view of economics and market theory, all-around analysis and description are made for instant dry bulk shipping market. And then a study on simulation and forecasting performance of ARIMA and multiple regression model was conducted to BFI and Iron Sea Borne to show the market adapts to be estimated. So whether have we tools to avoid risk on the basis of market forecasting? Yes, the finance engineering tools just perform. It was the emphases to dissertate why and how the tools can do it.