The Researches Of Listed Companies Valuation On DCF Model

With the arrival of value management era, being the theoretical basis of value management, theories and methods in value assessing are becoming hot topics and drawing more and more attentions from the people. Although many concerning researches have been conducted in the west, in China, being a country has experienced a long period of planned economy, both the proposition and the application of enterprise value were relatively late, and the accumulation of modern managerial theories was limited, researches on enterprise value assessing, both theoretically and practically, lagged behind relatively. Until now, traditional financial appraising methods that based on historical data are still the mainstream in practice within China. In contrast, because of the uncertainties in parameter choosing and the particularities of Chinese markets, the methods of Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) still have not entered real applications in China so far, although they kept being the mainstream in enterprise value assessing in the west. Based on the concerning classical theories, depended on the performance of Chinese enterprises and capital markets, took listed companies as the object, the paper is attempting to choose a system suitable for enterprise value assessing in China, so as to make some beneficial explorations in formulating a enterprise value assessing system with Chinese characteristics, after the practical analyses on the fitness of DCF to China. This paper adopted paired-stage technology and gray-related-degree methods in positive researches. In the first stage, p coefficient is computed with time serial method; and in the second stage, as the regressions are cross section by nature, after the linear fitting of stock values on the market to the stock values being assessed, and after the statistical tests, the relations between them are analyzed with the method of gray-related-degree, besides, on the basis of choosing model parameter rationally, the suitability of DCF to Chinese capital market is testified as well. According to the selected data, outcomes of the analyses possesses high correlations with the market values in this model, thus it has evaluated the enterprise values within the range of the data we have collected. According to the principles of statistical samples choosing, we argues that the parameter-determining methods used in the paper are reasonable, so we can predict the populations by the samples. To sum up, using these parameter-determining methods that have satisfied the basic presumes, this model has assessed the values of Chinese enterprises properly.