Theoretical Study And Prospect Of Monetary Integration Of China

Since last 20 years, with the trend of economic globalization and finance integration, monetary integration becomes main target for more and more territorial organizations. EURO was launched in Jan.1, 1999, and it's indicated that monetary integration became realistic.China is a special nation with four currencies, that is RMB, Hong Kong dollar, Macao dollar and Taiwan dollar. A lot of economists brought forward the idea of "Circle of Big .China". The thesis is to discuss monetary integration of China in the base of economic reason. Because of the sensitiveness of discussing Taiwan, and what's more, the economy of Taiwan is just like that of Hong Kong, and of course considering relatively weakness of Macao's economy, so the thesis only discuss monetary integration between the mainland of China and Hong Kong. In my option, Hong Kong and Macao can unite the currency now, which the paper is published in the November of magazine "finance or trade economics", 2001. So the thesis leaves much space for farther study. I hope that scholars pay more and more attention to the task, and to make the study progress.The thesis is based on the following logic to develop the viewpoints. At first, I make theoretical summarization of domestic and foreign literatures, and then I point out the contributions to the theory if finished the study. In the second chapter, I use the cost-benefit analysis to analyze the costs and benefits of monetary integration as a whole. I think it can improve the social welfare. And to any single part, it has motive to impel the monetary integration too. In the third chapter, I advance converge criteria of monetary integration of China, and explain reasons and obstacles of these indicators for China monetary integration. In the fourth chapter, I make the feasibility of economic and socialization analysis in the point of demonstration angle. At last I made a prospect of sequence and pattern of China monetary integration.The main conclusion of thesis is that there still aren't satisfied premises to found the optimal currency area between the mainland and Hong Kong. But when the economy is becoming more and more contacted, for example, there will be synchronous in the trade, investment and finance etc other aspects, so in the long run, the RMB and Hong Kong dollar will be monetary integration.