The Research Of Dynamic Game Of Macroeconomic Rational Expectation And Principal Subordinate Decreasing

It is emphasized that science intercross and syncretize each other in 21st century. People always try to bring human factors into modeling theory of macroeconomy. Therefore, this paper combines the theory of quadratic optimal control and the idea of rational expectation in macroeconomy. On the basis of Chow's simple model with rational expectation of quadratic optimum, Sean Holly and Paul Turner's model with complete rational expectation of quadratic optimal, we have done the study of the complete rational expectation model of quadratic optimal, and construct the game model between Central and Provinces. We have studied the game model between Central and Provinces by use of the idea of Stackelberg principal subordinate decreasing game.Firstly, in the process of modeling macroeconomy, we bring forward the concept of complete rational expectation, based on the idea of Chow , Sean Holly and Paul Turner bringing control variables directly into target function. But on the account of the particularity and the existence of innate equilibrium paths of the economic system, it is unreasonable for us to construct the complete expectation model of quadratic optimal by the use of expecting response. So we bring uniform exponential growth into objective function and do a series of research based on the quadratic optimal dynamic adding objective function. Based on them, we construct complete rational expectation model. We solve the problem of estimation of the parameters of closed loop by the means of optimal theory. Finally, the existence of the equilibrium paths is proved theoretically and practically, and the analytic formulae of the equilibrium paths are derived under dynamic adding objective function. Furthermore, the simulation of definite equilibrium paths obtains quite good results.On account of that macroeconomic model is modeled based on the theory of kinetics, that the economic and social system is composed of agents who can think and response, much information will be neglected by the use of conventional economics. Therefore, we model macroeconomic model based on multi-agents. Through the artificial experiment in Swarm, It's certain that revenue and loan playpart on Macroeconomy, namely revenue can adjust and control the fluctuating phase of Provinces economy and loan can control the fluctuating scope of economy , furthermore it will affect the speed of economic development. we are assured that the economy fluctuation occurs because of the bankrupt and organization of the enterprises. We can control the bankrupt scale of the enterprise through the control of the credit level. On the other hand, we believe that the level of revenue has slight impact on the development of economy in the long run, however in the short run, it has heavy impact on the fluctuation phase of economy and will affect the development pace of economy. Based on above ideas, we construct the interface of the game model between Central and Provinces through the use of rational expectation theory and the idea of Stackelberg principal subordinate decreasing game, and we do a series of artificial experiments about Central and Provinces.This paper tries to completely apply rational expectation theory of quadratic optimal, the idea of modeling based on multi-agents and Stackelberg principal subordinate game to macroeconomic system. So we can model macroeconomic fit for dynamic game between central and districts , furthermore, the model accords with macroeconomic theory and reality.