Research On Real Options Appraisal Methods Of Venture Capital Value

21 century is the age of knowledge economy whose emergence based on the development of hi-tech. Unless depends on venture capital to promote hi-tech industry; power and international competition ability of Chinese economy could be advanced. To develop venture capital, firstly need to scientifically appraise its value. On the contrary, traditional DCF will not only meet insurmountable difficulties, but also ignore the value of operation flexibility in venture capital enterprises, which assumes venture investor who makes decisions only could take rigid tactics. The method of real option could impersonally dispose parts of unknown (but could be known) data. It could get back the underestimated value of DCF and help enterprises create various real options (decision flexibility), consequently, adding the value during high risks.Mainly due to the lack research of home and abroad, this dissertation begins with analysis and classification of venture capital. On the basis of researching on classified real options, according to the wiener processes assumption, pricing way.s which concerned are discussed and the assumption. condition are released. At first, if the fluctuation of venture capital value accords with wiener processes, how to achieve appraisal with Black-Scholes is discussed. Secondly, if it doesn' t, real options could be copied by the combination of twin-security and risk-free bond. Then real options method is extended to more actual circs, which under fuzzy circs venture capital value is evaluated with mathmatical characters of trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. At last, in order to spread real option method to application layer and not rest on theoretically, the author gives examples one by one in allusion to the real options appraisal methods of venture capital value. And on this puts up implement steps of it. The author uses Black-Scholes, COX, ROSS, Rubinstein,trapezoidal fuzzy numbers, probability and stochastic calculus etc.Real option provides a new thought-way and probability of venture capital value appraisal. Discussing the stochastic processes of venture capital value fluctuant and studying on the kinds of real option and their relations have great importance in theory and application to exactly appraising venture capital value and scientific decision of venture investment.