The Research Into The Problem Of Credit Market Vulnerability In Our Country

Since 1980s, finance has developed rapidly in the world; however, this development has also been accompanied by the serious finance crisis. So the people put great emphasis on the research into the finance crisis and finance vulnerability. Generally, finance vulnerability refers to a finance state that tends to high risk and the probability that evolves financial crisis. In our country, bank credit has always occupied an important position. So the research into bank credit market vulnerability becomes my target in this article.Five parts are included in this article. The first is preface, which elaborates the theoretical meaning and actual meaning of the research into credit market vulnerability. In the second part, the main position of the bank credit system in the finance system in our country is stressed. So after the definition of finance vulnerability, the definition of credit market vulnerability is emphasized. This is caused by the high-debt operation in the enterprise and wrong assessment method of the bank. After the contrast of credit vulnerability with credit risk and so on, the credit vulnerability is explained by credit economics, credit contract theory and information economics.In the following part, the producing mechanism of credit market vulnerability in the developed country and that in the radical transferred country are introduced. They differ with each other.The fourth part is the key part in this paper, which introduces the method to measure the credit market vulnerability. First, some correlated indexes, which reflect credit market vulnerability, are analyzed. Since the credit market vulnerability is tightly related to big boom and big depression of economy, we can estimate the credit market vulnerability by analyzing the economy situation in recent years in our country. At the same time, CMAXt Index and Composite Index methods are also introduced in my paper. But by comparing these two methods I discover that they two don't involve the comprehensibility and representative wholly. So I try to combine the institution economics and factor analysis method to get forewarn index from the year 1995 to 2002, and find that the credit vulnerability is serious compared to other years. At last, three indexes---the concentration to real-estate credit capital sufficiency and earning/capital ratio are forewarn indexes.At last, how to govern the credit market vulnerability becomes the topic. And thispart is based on the second and the fourth part. So completing the governing mechanism , strengthening the popular supervision and improving the seceding mechanism of commercial bank are meaningful to reduce the credit market vulnerability.