The Research Into Problems Of Chinese Currency Substitution

In the course of making transition to market economy from planned economy, with economic open further and the liberalization gradually under the item of the capital of RMB, China will face an important problem: the currency substitution problem. There already exist some factors to produce the large- scale currency substitution on a certain degree in China, and along with the open degree of economy continuously increasing, this problem will exist over a long period. The large- Scale currency substitution will produce disadvantage influence on the stability of Macro-economic and the effect of economic policy of China, and will decelerate even stop halfway the liberalism process of Renminbi. Therefore, this problem has already caused the attention of theories field.This article acts Chinese currency substitution as research object. Beginning with basic the theories, it analyzes expression of the problem of Chinese currency substitution, and calculates the substitution degree, which is about between 8.88%-15.08%; Then it analyzed the factors that influencing Chinese currency substitution from micro and macro view, pointing out the important function of some factors such as GDP, inflation rate, the interest rate difference between domestic and international, the expected depreciate rate of Renminbi. On this foundation the article further analyzes the influence that the currency substitution already or may do on our country' s economy, including the influence to exchange rate, currency policy, finance policy, gross demand and balance of payments. Finally, drawing lessons from the domestic and international theories and experience versa currency substitution, the article bring out a series of policy suggestion against currency substitution risk under the open economy term.