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Study On Opportunity Evaluation Of BOT Project Investment Based On Possibility Theory And ANP Model

Posted on:2005-08-25Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:W T SunFull Text:PDF
GTID:2156360125462957Subject:Management Science and Engineering
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
Infrastructure projects procured via concession contracts are increasingly becoming the preferred option in developing countries. These projects are inherently high-risk investments in which political and economic instability, social, technological and other non-financial factors can significantly affect the financial viability of the project over the long term of investment. Thus, any decision to invest in these projects must be based upon a combined assessment of the financial and non-financial factors surrounding the project.This paper first introduces the necessity and pressing of the research of evaluation on BOT investment option, and reviews the research situations throughout the world. Then the parameters of evaluation on BOT investment option are identified after describing the concept and feature of BOT in detail and analyzing the critical success factors of BOT investment option and their interaction.The 3rd part of this paper points out that traditional evaluation methods incorporating risk analysis techniques require the input of relative frequencies that are not easily available in construction. This paper proposes a method capable of modeling the effects of both monetary and non-monetary aspects of an investment option, using possibility theory and interval mathematics to handle the inherent uncertainty associated with such aspects. To eliciting criteria weights of the non-financial factors properly, the hierarchical scaling method, ANP proposed by Saaty, is recommended. A numerical example is presented to demonstrate its application and superiority in the assessment and ranking of available investment options.In addition, this paper provides a summary of DDSs currently available to investors, highlighting their inability to address the non-financial factors unique to developing countries. Based on the analysis above, this paper then proposes a DSS framework for evaluation of BOT project opportunities.
Keywords/Search Tags:BOT, Opportunity evaluation, Uncertainty, Possibility theory, ANP, DSS
PDF Full Text Request
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