The Analysis Of Influence Factors In Our Country's Export Growth

In order to analyse the effect on export, this article choose seven factors and three arrangement. Firstly, the whole macro-economy factors are divided into internal ones and international ones, exchange rate and foreign income are chose as the reason for the increased demand of export. Secondly, internal ones are divided into production ones and consumption. Lastly, production ones are divided into the four essential elements. The analytical methods have three ones. The first one is qualitative analysis, on the base of classics theories of international trade. The second one is quantitative analysis, on the base of Cointegration Theory.The last one is to reach a conclusion by comparing qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis.Chapter one is about current foreign trade in China.including export scale,article structrue.market structrue and international compete index.Chaper two has analysed the export of China qualitatively. Firstly.the factor endowment of China and factor density type of export are introduced.Secondly,on the base of classic theories of international trade ,it is considered that devaluation of exchange rate, increase of foreign income , internal consumption and labour can promote export, but increase of capital, FDI and the progress of technology are unfavourable to exprot. Lastly,by reasonabl hypothses and application of micro-economy theories,export models of international demand and internal supply are got.Chaper three has tested the qualitative conclusion quantitatively by the Cointegration Theory, Error Correction Model and Granger Causality Test.Firstly.the article illustrates variables, the data source and the process of initial data. Secondly,the smooth of export and factors has been examined,the result is that all series are integration,which is the precondition of Cointegration Theory. Thirdly,practical research has been done by the Cointegration Theory and Error Correction Model.From the coefficient and test value.it is found that independable varibles effect differently in long term and in short term,also differing from qualitative conclusion.All results have been concluded and the difference has been explained.Forthly, Granger Causality Test has been done with all variables.In addition.the structrue effect of independable varibles has been analysed.it indicates that independable varibles effect differently on primary products and industrial products.At the same time,it also indicates the effect of labor structure and capital structure on export.Chapter five contrasts the ' qualitative result and the quantitative one to make a last conclusion, and submitsshort-term suggestions and long-term ones.