| With the rapid development of China's economy,various aspects of medical services and social security system have been improved.People's living standard has also been greatly improved.The life expectancy of residents has increased year by year,and the age structure of population has also changed greatly.The most prominent point of the age structure of the population is the increase of the proportion of the elderly population.The increase of the elderly population will inevitably lead to the reduction of the social labor force,which has a very significant effect on the industrial structure to a certain extent.Based on literature review of existing research on the relationship between population aging and industrial structure upgrading,we further explore the internal relationship between them by using econometric models based on demand,and get the following conclusions.First,by the end of 2015,the number of children aged 0 to 14 years in mainland China was 227 million 150 thousand,which accounted for 16.5% of the total population at the end of the year.The number of elderly people aged 65 years old(65 years old)was 143 million 860 thousand,accounting for 10.5% of the total population at the end of the year.The proportion of the elderly population has far exceeded the internationally recognized human aging society 7% indicators,and in 1990 the elderly population proportion of the total population at the end of the year is 5.6%,that is to say in the past 15 years,the proportion of the elderly population increased by 4.9 percentage points,the aging situation is very serious.At the same time,from the data charts of aging in different provinces,we find that there are obvious regional differences in the aging of population in China.The specific situation is in the eastern,central and western regions.From the production of one,two and three,the proportion of variation trend as found,the proportion of the three industries exceeded the proportion of secondary industry in 2013,has become the largest pillar industry of China's economic development.Secondly,the article analyzes the transmission mechanism between the aging of population and the upgrading of industrial structure from the perspective of demand.First,we use life cycle theory to deduce the mathematical relationship between aging and consumption,and conclude that population aging can reduce consumption through restraining family income and further influence the upgrading of industrial structure.Secondly,the Jorgensen cointegration test has been used to further verify the long-term equilibrium relationship between aging,family income,consumption and industrial structure upgrading.Finally,the Granger causality test has been used to verify the short-term mechanism between aging,family income,consumption and industrial structure upgrading.Finally,the upgrading of industrial structure is a gradual process.The early industrial layout of a region has a great impact on the optimization and development of the latter industry.The aging of the three regions has shown different effects on the upgrading of the industrial structure.The old industry in the East is in the leading level in the country,and the awareness of the consumption of the elderly is generally relatively open,which further promotes the development of the old industry in this area,and the development of the old industry pushes the development of the local economy.The development of the elderly industry in the central and western regions is relatively slow,and the consumption consciousness of the elderly is not strong,and the aging of the population has more obvious restraining effect on the upgrading of industrial structure.The income of the three regions has promoted the upgrading of the industrial structure.The increase of household income stimulated consumption and also promoted regional development. |
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