Resarch On System Dynamics Model Of Real Estate Warning In Cities

In these years, the real estate market of China keeps on hot, which has made government and experts pay more attention to the prospect of it. In order to keep the market rational, researching on"real estate warning system"has becoming an imperative problem. But because of the peculiarity of our real estate market, traditional theory on real estate warning is not very suitable for it.System Dynamics is used in this thesis to do research on the house real estate market. Firstly, by analyzing the inner structure and external influence factors of the market, the article establishes an emulation forecast model with System Dynamics theory. Then, as an example, simulates the developing condition of Nanjing's commercial tenement market from 1996 to 2010 with Vensim PLE plus 32 (4.2a) of Ventana System Inc., which is a software for system dynamics simulation. Lastly, concludes the developing status of Nanjing's real estate market through analyzing the main export index, and expounds corresponding policy advice by policy simulation experiment.The thesis provides a new methodological tool for"real estate warning", Using this tool, we can forecast the trend of real estate market , conclude it's developing status and provide policy advice.