Model Of Real Estate Forecasting And Early Warning System And Its Application In Nanjing

The changes in real estate market status have obvious cycling characteristics. Too large fluctuation contradicts with the continuing healthy and stable development of real estate economy. The purpose of the research is that in order to keep the real estate economy developing healthy and prevent it from huge fluctuation, through mastering the information and rules of real estate cycles, the status of fluctuation which reflects the cycling characteristics can be inspected, evaluated and early warned.First of all, based on the status analysis of real estate early warning research at home and abroad, with the cycling theory and early warning theory combined, the theory platform of real estate early warning based on cycling is built, and the basic concepts, principles and methods of real estate early warning are concluded. Based on the contrastive analysis of different real estate indexes systems of our country, the choosing principles of real estate early warning indexes are confirmed and the qualitative analysis of these indexes is performed. The real estate early warning indexes system which includes absolute index and relative index is chosen. Combining the theory platform with the computer techniques, this paper establishes the infrastructure of real estate early warning system and discusses the building techniques of the real estate early warning system in Nanjing. The discussion includes the key design issues of early warning system, design of system structure, design of system interface and design of system flow.Secondly, the qualitative and quantitative research of the real estate early warning system and its applied analysis are preformed. The characteristic of the booming cycle early warning method is that it can easily recognize the feature of real estate cycling and analyze the booming status of the real estate market. While the characteristic of the synthesis early warning method is that through forecasting the indexes, analyze the warning statuses of single index and integrated index with the warning principles applied. The investigations with the government bureaus, real estate experts, real estate developers, financial organizations, real estate media, real estate consulting organizations and potential consumers oriented are conducted, and the integrated qualitative analysis is performed concretely by real estate related professionals and potential consumers.Finally, based on the results of the qualitative and quantitative analysis of real estate market in Nanjing compared, this paper carries out the integrated early warning result and gives suggestions for policy regulation and control with the compensatory analysis combined, considering the practical situation of the real estate market in Nanjing. The result of the demonstrative analysis is in accordance with the practical situation of the real estate development in Nanjing, this indicates that the real estate early warning system established in the research is feasible, with full theory analysis and good practical value, provides scientific foundation for guiding and controlling the real estate markets.