Perspectives Of American Security Elite On China's Nuclear Issues And Their Policy Impacts

In recent years, U.S. nuclear policies toward China had gone through some negative changes. First, some U.S. nuclear weapons that originally aimed at Russia were changed to target China; second, the hostile components against China kept increasing in the U.S. nuclear strategy. For example, the recent U.S. Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) lists China as one of the targets of its nuclear weapons and takes Taiwan Strait crisis as one contingency for using nuclear weapons. In the face of these increasing negative components in U.S. nuclear policies toward China, it is necessary for us to find out where these components come from and analyze the possible impact and consequences on China. This will help China respond to the negative changes of U.S. nuclear policies rationally and wisely in future bilateral interaction and protect China's own security interests.This thesis mainly focuses on the following questions: first, what are the American security elite's perspectives on China's nuclear issues (including their perception of Chinese present nuclear capability, their guesses of Chinese future nuclear development and their attitude toward Sino-U.S. nuclear cooperation)? Second, what kind of Chinese nuclear capability and strategy will American security elite accept? Third, what kind of policy suggestions will different schools of security experts give to U.S. government to deal with China's nuclear capability? Fourth, what is the relationship between security experts and the decision makers? How will the experts' viewpoints affect U.S. security policies? What is the future of U.S. nuclear policies toward China?U.S. nuclear policies are part of U.S. foreign and security policies. The president is the most powerful person in this regard. However, U.S. nuclear policies are not determined only by the president, and American decision-making system makes it possible that experts inside and outside the government will have influence on U.S. nuclear policies. Moreover, U.S. president is unnecessarily an expert of nuclear issues so that detailed nuclear policies will certainly come from experts' suggestions. Therefore, this thesis first examines American security experts' research monographs, academic papers and research reports to find out their understanding of current Chinese nuclear capability, and their projections of China's future nuclear development and policy suggestions on how to deal with Chinese nuclear deterrence. Then by using the method of deduction, we try to find out how the security experts' perspectives will affect U.S. nuclear policies toward China. We further analyze and predict the impact of experts' perception on U.S. nuclear policies by investigating two important security elite organizations in the United States. Through the above research, the thesis reaches the following conclusions: American security elite have divergent views on China's nuclear issue and such divergence will lead to instability of U.S. nuclear policies. The consensus reached by the security elites on some aspects of China's nuclear issue is not correct and this is adverse to China's interest. By understanding different organizations' standpoints on China's nuclear issue and the relationship between these organizations and decision makers, to some extent, we can try to predict future U.S. nuclear policies toward China and adjust China's nuclear strategy accordingly so as to maintain China's nuclear deterrence effectively.