The Research On Theory And Method Of Risk Management In Supply Chain

Along with the knowledge economy, the strategic fellowship becomes more and more important under the direction of dynamic and globalization competition, so the Supply Chain Management gets the advantage place in the enterprise and the academic field because of its capacity of response, flexibility and low costing. Currently, the differentiates of the same kind of product from different business become more and more minor, the business which has the technology advantage has been fewer, so the competition is not between the isolate business, but the supply chain. Modern supply-chains are very complex, with many parallel physical and information flows occurring in order to ensure that products are delivered in the right quantities, to the right place in a cost-effective manner. Due to the complexity of the supply chain, there exists great risk. The supply chain enterprises are interdependent, and must work in coordination. Any problem that occurred in any link would influence the entire supply chain. Companies have been aware of the need for disaster recovery and crisis management for some considerable time, particularly in areas such as information technology and production facilities. Furthermore, business risk and continuity management is now receiving increasing attention by companies and their insurers, particularly as regards the loss of market share and the time, and cost, of re-entering a market after a significant disruption to supply chain.On such basis, this thesis regards the system principle as the base and is guided by the theory of the system engineering. It directs the emphases at the risk of supply chain, centers on the theories in risk system, and researches the system of the risk management in supply chain completely. Then it builds up the early-warning system of the risk in supply chain.This thesis can be divided into five parts:Part one introduces the background of the risk management in supply chain. This part also discusses the necessity and the importance to risk management insupply chain. By the way, the part introduces the condition in the research and research method and content of this thesis. Part two introduces some conceptions such as the risk, risk management and the supply chain management and the fundamental of the system of risk management in supply chain, and then it can be regarded as the theoretical basis of this paper. Part three discriminates the risk of supply chain and points out the possible crises which come from them. Then it can provide the basis of building of the system of risk evaluation in supply chain. Part four bases on the analyses of the sources and factors of risk of supply chain .It evaluate the risk of supply chain by employing fuzziness comprehensive evaluation. Then it brings forward the forecast model of the BP neural network. Also it shows handling of risk of supply chain completely .Part five builds up the initiative early-warning system of the supply chain in risk which is based on the research of passivity system of risk management in supply chain.