The Empirical Research On Financial Distress Prediction Of The Listed Companies In China

Under the background of fact that market economy is developing quickly, the credit risks expose more and more serious. The credit risks have already become the key risk that financial systems of various countries have faced. How to measure the credit risks accurately become the focus that financial institutions, investors and governments pay close attention to.This paper carried on theoretical research to the credit risks prediction of listed company and regarded listed company of our country as samples to carry on positive research. Firstly, we listed the models and theories related to this research in the world. Secondly, we analyzed the existing credit risk model and corresponding positive research, and choose Logistic regression model on the basis of comparing the several kinds of models. We have chosen Logistic regression model as the theory models of credit risks prediction of listed company. Logistic regression model is a kind of non-linear probability model, it is not strict to distribution of the data, have not used the complicated mathematics methods either, the conclusion that draw from Logistic model show that Logistic model can predict credit risk correctly. Through the positive research we draw the following conclusion, it is obvious that in the security market of our country , while company is falling into the credit crisis, the debt paying ability and profit ability worsen is the most obvious, we can believe that the deterioration of debt paying ability and profit ability is immediate causes that the company falls into the credit crisis. As a matter of fact that there are still some problems which need to be deeply studied, we have given the positive advices to the followers.