The Research Of Forecasting Model For Financial Distress Of Chinese Listed Company

Financial crisis is a kind of economic phenomenon, which means that companies are unable to pay the due debt or the expenses including from fund manage technical failure to bankrupt or various kinds of situations between the two. With the constant development of the capital market in our country, the constant, the constant perfection of the information announcing system of listed company, implemented special treatment with the gradual increase of listed company, the administrators of enterprises, creditors, investors and government administrative department, etc. all people, relation of interests, is it appraise financial situation, operation of enterprise have important meaning to predict in time.This text is on the foundation of studies on financial forecasting model of crisis at present of our country, study and structure the forecasting model of financial crisis further. The text is choosing the principle of the sample, index variable choose, financial crisis leading and financial crisis early warning construction course, etc. respect of forecasting model innovate to some extent. This text choose 38 financial crisis companies implemented special treatment for the first time in 2002 and 38 paired non-financial crisis companies as sample of estimating, using multi-variable analytical methods, utilize the financial data in the financial statement that the listed company has already been audited, choose 20 index variables which contain the financial situation of listed company of various fields, choose 5 index variables from it. adopt regression of binary logistic to structure a forecasting model which is more effectively and stronger predicted ability.This text choose 32 financial crisis companies that is with special treatment for the first time in 2003 and 32 paired non-financial crisis companies as examining sample to examine the model's correct rate. The forecasting model of financial crisis indicates that the model can finely forecast to take place the possibility of financial crisis within three years in the future, the correct rate examined finally is up to 78.13%.