Research Of Realty Bubble And Financial Crisis

With the rapid development of the national realty in recent years, there are more and more topics about realty especially on whether there will be realty bubble and whether this can cause financial crisis. However, at present, most topics on this in our country come from the problems of realty itself and draw the conclusion whether realty bubbles exist.So most of them are short of therial depth.In this paper, the topic begins from the concept of realty, analyzes the essence of the bubble and the cause of its formation, and then draws the conclusion that the birth of bubble is a necessity and the main kind of bubble is land-value bubble.On the above basis ,this paper analyzed the harm of realty bubble and the main mechanism that realty causes finacial crisis.The widely used "income revivification measure" is introduced. From the angle of financial crisis, bubble-ratio critical value is deduced from the conditions assumption and simplification. Then the income revivification measure is converted into the realistic bubble-ratio module. The possibility of the financial crisis caused by realty bubble is analyzed by the compare and analysis and the key factor that matters most in the process of financial crisis caused by realty bubble is also analyzed. Measures aiming at those factors are presented to prevent the financial crisis caused by realty bubbles from happening.According to the above analysis, the main conclusion is the capital debt-ratio of realty enterprise, the quantity of the total capital, total value of bubble realty n capital abundance ratio of financial organizations and realty bubble. For our country at present the realty debts mainly come from banks or financial organizations, realty bubbles mainly behave as land-value bubble, so the theoretic measures of preventing financial crisis caused by realty bubble include: controlling the realty debt-ratio . strengthening government of land-, raising capital capacity of banks and capital abundance ratio and reducing the total value quantity of bubble capital and so on.Some suggestions of the benign development of the national realty are given: first, consummate realty finance, and reduce realty debt ratio; second, strengthen the government of land from the headstream; third, build up realty presentiment system from the angle of financial crisis; at last, raise capital capacity of banks and capital abundance ratio and reduce the total value quantity of bubble capital from people's anticipation and investments.