The Bipolar View And The Choice Of RMB Exchange Rate Regime

The paper is derived from those international economics hot questions of emerging market' s currency crisis and the theory of RMB appreciation, and elaborates on the problem of RMB exchange rate regime choice. According to the development course of the regime of international exchange rate and development trend that choose of regime of exchange rate at present, the paper have draw the hypothesis of the bipolar view, and has testified against it; author present a new theory of co-exitence-and-sequence exchange rate regime, and argued that the choice of exchange rate regime is a dynamic course of co-conversion, and the choice of exchange rate regime is rested on specific condition, sequently the paper turn to the choice of RMB exchange rate regime, and analysis the foundation factor of determination RMB exchange rate regime; on account of the bipolar view influence, author argue that the RMB exchange rate regime has evolved de facto peg dollar exchange rate regime in fact.Under the circumstance of china finance further opening, the cost of maintenance the regime will get more, and the risk also will get high, so the regime of RMB exchange rate has the necessity of re-choice. Under the circumstance of international finance further globalization and china finance further opening, the reform of RMB exchange rate regime has great influence, and it need full theory considerations, meanwhile it combine closely the trend of international exchange rate regime evolution and china objective reality, especially pay attention to the further development of reform and opening course. Considered that china finance reality, implementing hard peg exchange rate regime isn' t favor to economic level effect, but at present there isn' t enough condition in implementing float exchange rate regime in china, so author argue that china should choose median exchange rate regime between hard peg exchange rate regime and float exchange rate regime. Target zone both possess those merit of hard peg and float exchange rate regime, and can harmonize exchange rate policy and money policy and realize economy interior and exterior equilibrium, meanwhile it is accordance with china step-by-step reform policy, so target zone exchange rate regime is line with china reality of the day. Based on those analyses and conformed international and national economic condition in china and some intrinsic defects of target zone regime, author transform target zone exchange rate regime by dividing two layers and bring forward a new exchange rate regime: double-layer-monitor exchange rate regime, the new model have possessed two merits, one is that the new model make "hollymoon effect" of target zone recurrence,and the merit can alleviate the fluctuation of exchange market;another merit is that the new model is a self-regulation system, that is say, the model can avoid long-term misalignment of exchange rate, those merit have major significance for china economy sustainable development and Chinese financial system more perfection, in paper we also present some fiscal policy and money policy served as a foil to double-layer-monitor exchange rate regime in order to make it work well, at last, we conclude that the new model will be the prior selection of RMB exchange rate regime reform for a long time form now on, and it also can serve as the bridge of RMB exchange rate regime steering to one of bipolar—free float.