The Research About Linkage Reform Between Export-Leading Strategy And China's Exchange Rate System

Firstly, the article analyzes the background and applicability of the three competition patterns on export, that is nature resource advantage , labour cost advantage , technology innovation advantage, and poin out that the last one is our final resort, the exchange rate is not the key factor for export competition. By analyze P*R/Pw, the ratio of export resistivity, it conclude that the value increasing is only a short-term shock on export products of labour intense industry, the labour intense industry should not be over emphasized to be protected by lower exchange rate.By analyzing Japan's misplay when it cope with the "Plaza Accord", the article indicate that RMB value increasing will benefit on protection of domestic nature resource , industry restructure , speeding up our progress to join the globlized world economy. Despite that the value of RMB is driven higher by inherence force of improved economy efficiency, our stock market is too speculative and the real estate market is full of risk, the fragile financial system is under the threaten of international hot money, which is abstracted by expectation of RMB value increasing. It is an urgent affair to avoide the situation of double key bubbles.The export-leading strategy is shifting to enlarge-domestic-demand strategy, the reform of the managed float exchange rate system is absolutely necessary when the condition is mature, this article focus on the techno-measure reform of managed float rate, the main character of this measure is that the central rate is determinated phase by phase and the market rate is allowed to fluctuate in a small scope. It will allow the RMB exchange rate to be adjusted in time. And also put forward an advice of establishing a market for arbitrage debt in order to leading the international hot money.