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Research On Warning System Of The Public Company's Financial Risk In China

Posted on:2006-05-23Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:Y Z ShangFull Text:PDF
GTID:2156360152971283Subject:Technical Economics and Management
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
Every enterprise faces financial risk during its production and management in the market economy. During the development of the market economy, it's more possible for Chinese enterprise to meet bankruptcy and other financial puzzledom in their operation. It's more and more important to find an efficient way to manage the financial risk, especially to the public company. If the company is in financial trouble, it might lead to serious results, so it is important to gauge financial risk and set up warning model.In the first place, the author introduces the intension and characteristic of financial risk. And has described the function and the necessity of financial risk management. In the second place, the author thinks that the financial early warning system of risk should include qualitative analysis, quantitative analysis and continual control. Qualitative analysis can use the method in nature. Quantitative analysis should choose the proper model and corresponding index. Continual control can use index correlating with cash flow. Enterprise must determine the last judgement by combining them together. Finally, research approach of the thesis is positive research. If the public company is ST, we think that it has fallen into the financial crisis. Utilizing the data materials in recent years of the public company in china, we set up warning model of financial risk by multinomial logistic regression. The index of differentiating is the rate of the current liability, the total turnover rate of assets, net interest rate of assets.
Keywords/Search Tags:financial risk, early warning system, multinomial logistic regression
PDF Full Text Request
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