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China's Listed Companies, Financial Failure Of The Empirical Research And Application Of Early Warning Models

Posted on:2003-12-20Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:Z B PanFull Text:PDF
GTID:2206360095961114Subject:Business management
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
After China's entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO), the enterprises in China must adapt the opportunities and changelings which are caused by the entry. To prevent and forefend the risk of financial failure is the most important issue that the administors must think of. However, how to use practicable and convenient methods to warn the administors early is the necessary way to apply the strategy into practice, which is the topic discussed in this paper.Firstly, the author reviews the classical articles about early-warning models in the financial-failure field. On the basis of summarize and review these research, the author selected 18 listed companies which experienced financial failure and 18 corresponding listed companies which were in formal financial conditions as the comparative examples. After the section analysis and the single-variable discriminant analysis of the financial ratios' difference of the two groups for three years before the financial failure, the author picks out some ratios as the predication variable and establishes some multi-variable models to forecast financial failure. And at the last, combining the common conditions of the information progress in the financial management in China, this paper discusses the basis, the condition and the problem which should be noticed in the use of the financial failure early-warning models by companies.From the definition of financial failure, the design of study examples to the choice of the variable and statistical methods on financial failure early-warning research, the author puts forward the thougtway about it, especially sets up three types of early-warning models by principal component analysis, Fisher discriminant analysis and Logistic regression analysis. The study results show the three models also have quite good predictable efficiency and accuracy.
Keywords/Search Tags:financial failure, early-warning model, principal component analysis, Fisher discriminant analysis, Logistic regression analysis
PDF Full Text Request
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