Intra State Conflict Mediation In Africa

This thesis examines the reasons for the failure of the various peace mediation attempts to settle the Northern Uganda conflict between the government of Uganda and the rebels of Lord Resistance Army (LRA). From 1986 to 2006, northern Uganda was locked up in a violent armed insurgence between the Uganda army, Uganda people Defense Force (UPDF) and the LRA rebel. By examining the numerous mediation efforts, the thesis will assess the impact of the failed mediation on regional peace. It will show that, northern Uganda in particular and the great lakes region in general experienced years of armed conflicts resulting from the failure to resolve political differences using political-civil means. The thesis unearth the main causes of the northern Uganda conflict by tracing the roots back to the British colonial administrative policy of divide and rule which tore the country into a binary us versus them as this policy worked in favor of one ethnic groups at the expense of the other. The capture of state power by the current NRM regime and their immediate government policy is deeply explored to understand the contributory factors that led to discontent amongst some sections in northern Uganda to pick up arms as a form of resistance. It argues that the reason for failure of the numerous peace efforts to end the conflict in the region has been largely the lack of a clear approach by the government and the unwillingness of the LRA/M to genuinely negotiate for peace. A three-pronged strategy (military pressure on the LRA, offers of amnesty and negotiations) have at different times produced failed peace settlements. The LRA since the early 1990s entered Southern Sudan after the failed peace Talk of 1994 and later to Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo and Central African Republic. Specifically, the thesis argues that, the inability to successfully conclude the Juba peace talks which started in July 2006 in South Sudan Capital-Juba is due to lack of clear political leadership from the LRA, military and logistical support from the Khartoum government to the LRA and the ICC arrest warrant which further complicated the terms and progress of the Juba Peace Talks. The government of Uganda's priority and insistence on the use of military solutions to cease the conflict has played significant role in the various attempts at peace.Chapter 1:Problem Description and MethodologyIn this chapter, I will examine how Peace mediation has become a prominent activity in the post-Cold War era, the different intra state conflicts that look place in Africa. I mention mediation attempts by states, NGOs, regional/sub regional bodies and prominent individuals backed by the UN. Here, I am going to point out the mediation processes which were successful and those which did not flourish. From this spot, I will introduce the context of the Northern Ugandan conflict on which this study centers. This will includes statement problem, the study's objectives, the main research questions, justification, the scope of the study which is mainly concern with the Northern Uganda, between the period 1986-2008, methodology used in this study lastly and Literature Review. The literature review involved looking through earlier research and getting as much information as the researcher could and systematically searching relevant materials and documents to find out why the many peace efforts failed to produce a final peace accord. The sources includes but not limited to books, government and non-governmental organization reports, popular sources such as news paper articles on war, conflict and on peace negotiations that provide useful hints on possible reasons for the failed mediations. These literatures are all useful since recent literatures and explanations of the conflict highlight the root causes of the conflict in line with current mainstream political thinking in the country. All the earlier literatures proved valuable in giving a broad range of explanations to the background to the current conflict.Chapter 2:Theoretical Frame workThis chapter will look at the enforcement of promises during and after conflict mediation is central in giving explanations of many political, social and economic phenomena that come after the end of intra state conflict. When disputants or individuals cannot trust others to follow through with their commitments on what has been agreed upon, social behavior becomes mildly inefficient at best, nasty and cruel at worst. In light of that, it has made some conflicts hard to settle in spite of many mediation attempts by locals and international efforts, a case in point being the Northern Uganda conflict. Conflict mediation in intra state conflict in Africa has been more common than international or inter-state conflicts. In particular, scholars commonly argue whether a resolution can take place during conflict. To accomplish my objective, this study shall be rooted in the theory of conflict resolution/transformations as advanced by different scholars.In this chapter, I summarized the theories of conflict resolution by categorizing them into two camps. According to her, the first views negotiate settlements primarily as a function of the economic, military, or political conditions that exist on the ground and are likely to encourage combatants to initiate negotiations. This set of theories tends to assume that, once the above conditions favor negotiation, successful settlement is likely to be achieved. The second set of theories views negotiate settlements primarily as a function of combatants'ability to resolve underlying conflicts of interest. This camp assumes that once a bargain has been reached, successful settlement should follow. To Walter, both camps stand in contrast to the credible commitment theory, which argues that even if combatants reach a mutually agreeable bargain they will not implement its terms unless credible guarantees on the terms of the treaty are included; conditions that affect "Ripeness for Resolution", Costs of War, domestic political institutions and conditions that encourage combatants to strike a bargain. Here, the failure to solve the above problems in credible guarantees (third party) can result into new or continued warfare, as parties cannot trust each other to respect the terms of peace underway. This typical illustration clarifies why many mediation attempts failed to produce a final resolution for Northern Uganda.Chapter 3:Historical Background of the Conflict and the Peace Mediation AttemptsThis chapter seeks to bring out the historical background of the conflict that has been going on in Northern Uganda especially in Acholi land between 1986-2006. Since the civil war has wretched this region for over two decades, I will also analyze how efforts at peace settlements undertaken at different times in the course of the conflict by different organizations and institutions have failed to end the conflict. I will present the different initiative in historical order so as to identify patterns of mediation, cooperation and failures of the peace process in each case. The key question that shall guide this chapter is:why did numerous peace initiatives failed to work in the case of Northern Uganda since 1987 when the first peace effort was brokered? The chapter ends with my own interpretation of what went wrong during these numerous peace accords.Chapter 4:the Impact of Lord's Resistance Army Conflict on Regional peace(Sudan, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Central African Republic (CAR).)In this chapter, I will look at the period when the peace negotiations began in Juba between the authorities of Uganda and the Lord's Resistance Army. The talks were hosted by the Government of South Sudan (GoSS) and on mediated by Dr. Riek Machar, the vice president of Government of South Sudan (GoSS) on 26th August 2006. The negotiations culminated in the signing of a truce between the LRA and UPDF; the cessation of Hostilities Agreement, later renewed in December 2006. However, despite the peace talks and advocacy to call the end of the insurgency, the atrocities continued to be committed by both the LRA and UPDF in Northern Uganda, Southern Sudan, Democratic Republic of Congo and Central African Republic after the failed peace mediation hosted by Government of South Sudan GoSS in their capital Juba. From the above as the peace mediation failed in 2008, LRA spiraling bloodshed in Central Africa, Democratic Republic of Congo and Southern Sudan will be discuss here.Chapter 5:Conclusions and RecommendationsThis chapter presents conclusions and recommendations. The credible guarantees and historical injustice issues will be look at. I will also emphasize the principle of local ownership and the perspective of capacity development if any everlasting peace is to be attain in Northern Uganda and the region at large. The lack of well develop structural conditions, attitudes and modes of political behaviour that may permit peaceful settlement of conflict, stable and prosperous social and economic development will be discuss. The aim is to find an end to two decades of war that have fractured Acholi society and also spread to other countries in the region.