A Research On The Sustainability Of China's Current Account

The exterior equilibrium of a country's economy was defined again since the early 1980s,that is,emphasizing the balance of current account.The exterior equilibrium of a country's economy can be defined as rational current account surplus accommodated with a country's macroeconomic conditions.The balance of current account disequilibrium is the head aspect of the world economy problem, also is the main factor of instability of global economy.The author introduced the intertemporal approach. The intertemporal approach views the current-account balance as the outcome of forward-looking dynamic saving and investment decisions.The author presented an empirical evidence illustrating the usefulness of the intertemporal approach by using the data of china's current account.In the 1990s, some characters of China's current account structure of balance of payments are as follows:China's current account surplus was kept.The flow of current account and its secondary account increased tremendously.How about the substainability and validity of the current account structure of China?The author first analyzed the durative of main balance of payments account flow and its balance relation carefully, which mainly involves the balance relation between goods account surplus and services account deficit, the balance relation between inflow of foreign direct investment and outflow of investment income, the change of investment income balance.The author thinks that China's trade surplus will continue in the later 5 to 10 years; that the balance relation between goods account surplus and service account deficit will exist too; but that the amount of income on investment deficit incline to reduce. In this way, because of the durative of the total current account surplus, the crisis of the balance of payments will not break out.In chapter 5,some suggestions about current account management were put forward:Carry out the strategy and policy of foreign investment. Adjust the policy of absorbing and utilizing foreign direct investment. Maintain current account surplus in...