China's International Balance Of Payments Structure Analysis And Policy Thinking

As the most complete record of international trade and the key yardstick of measuring the external balance in a country, the balance of payments is becoming more and more important to a more open China which faces the trend of world economy integration. Present researches in this field usually focus on the total amount by emphasizing the balance of the whole account, and pay little attention to its structure. These directly lead to the deviation in theoretical work and policy-making.To solve these problems, the author analyses the balance of payments accounts on the basis of its structure, pursues further researches on the components and the whole balance of the accounts by combining traditional theories and practical conditions, uses mathematical tools to sum up the laws in structure change and the factors that affect the accounts, discusses the characteristics, influence and trend of our country's specific structure of the balance of payments accounts, and tries to get some enlightenments on the balance of payments adjustment and macroeconomic policies in our country.There four parts in this paper: The first part is about some basic matters. It includes the review of related concepts and traditional theories, and the verifications and explanations of these concepts and theories in accordance with the analysis of the structures of several sample countries' balance of payments. The second part is about some detailed researches of our country's balance of payments. Several methods are used comprehensively to examine the changing situations, internal rules and some problems existing in our balance of payments accounts from 1982 to 2003, to set up error correction models (ECMs) of branch accounts, and to testify the main factors which affect the accounts and the extent of these effects. The third part is about the "double-surplus" structure in our country's balance of payments. Firstly, comparisons about this structure are made among Singapore, South Korean and China. Secondly, the reasons which contribute to the form of this structure, andadvantages and disadvantages of this structure are expounded. At last, a simple model in which calculus tools are used is set up to forecast the future structure in our country's balance of payments accounts according to present cases. The last part is about some suggestions on policys. The content in this part ca? be divided into three aspects: the balance of payments adjustment policies, trade and capital policies and industrial policies. All these policies are derived from the conclusions in the former three parts.