Research On The Selection Of ITMP Of Our Country

Since 1990s of the past century, foreign countries especially the western developed countries' ITMP had altered variably due to multi-factors interaction within the process of economy development. The change of ITMP of western countries impacted that of our countrie's inevitably. In China, money supply has been taken as ITMP since 1996. Money supply has worked well as an indicator of monetary policy in the past eight years. Whereas, the condition of economical and financial environment has changed remarkably as the time goes on. The validity of money supply's being ITMP decreased consumedly as incessant opening of economy, finance innovation day and month, finance integration, development of finance technology and the birth of electron money, which all lead to low controllability of money supply and money' endogen sis to a great extent. And along with achieving much in economy and finance reformation and marketlization of interest rate, interest rate has played a more and more important role in the economy. The environment is more suitable for interest rate to act as ITMP. It is the general trend to take interest rate other than money supply as intermediate target, which can be seasoned with our country's economy and finance environment better. As a result, money policy can get better effect to promote the economy to develop more quickly and healthy.Part I is the foreword of this thesis, in which the author interpret the notion of ITMP. In part II I analyze the bifurcation on the problem of ITMP between the Keynes's and Monetarism, which are the mainstream of western theories about ITMP. Then it comes out the controversy of our country's ITMP. In the third part I expound the trend of change of western countries and take the America as a specific example who leads the world's economy. In part IV the author analyzes the validity of money supply's being our country's ITMP since 1996 especially by demonstration on pertinence, controllability and measurability of money supply. In the fifth part, I construe the necessity of interest rate's being our ITMP. Then I reason that interest rate is advantageous in view of five-traits of ITMP and strengthen my opinion through statistic data. I point out that at present there is still some realistic obstacles in interest rates being ITMP. In the last part I draw a conclusion that we should adopt two steps in the implementation of ITMP after reviewing all the factors related. In the short run. we can only take money supply as ITMP, but in the long run, we must take interest rate instead. And the transformation should get on the road right away and step by step. We should push the innovation of systems of economy and finance and fasten the marketlization of interest rate in order to realize the conversion of ITMP.