The Dynamic Connection Between Aging And Expenditure For Social Security Based On Nonparametric Statistics

Abstract:We have entered into the old- aged world at the end of 1990s,which is not suitable with our economic growth. As the elderly increase quickly in China, more and more problems about aging will appear, especially in society and economic. A lot of research showed the major effect is that: change the rate of population foster ,the number of population foster increased burdened the labored ;the structure of age will change, the age of labor, then productivity may decrease. the expenditure on social security have to increase ,which heavy the government's Financial burden ; the structure of family also changed, it become smaller, the ability that family can service the aged weakened; special consume needed,consume structure and industrial structure may change, the income decrease or the lived on the deposit increase , the deposit increase will rise.The rate of the aged asks new change for the social security and Industrial structure .From the growth countries'experience ,the increasing of job losing and the aging growing coursed the social security become the first place on the total expenditure. In the united states , the expenditure on social security rise from 2.4% to13.1% in GNP, over Military expenditure in 1975. China's expenditure on social security also increased in recent years. The article uses nonparametric regression to analyze the relation between the aging and expenditure on social security, then compare with linear least squares estimation. It gets better result. Based on the estimation, we analyze the lack of expenditure on social security with the aging of China ,then try to give some proposals.