Empirical Analysis Of The Influence Of Population Aging On Medical Expenditure

Our country is populous,stepped into an aging society in 2000,after that,ageing has been accelerating stage.At present,our country show the characteristics of getting old before getting rich,getting old before getting prepared,especially in the underdeveloped area,the characteristics of the aging performance is more outstanding.While Urban and rural residents in our country is still facing "difficulty and high cost",especially in rural areas,this kind of phenomenon is more serious.There are 42% of people due to illness-caused poverty in the poor people.Expensive medical cost not only make people cannot afford,not only makes the social gap between rich and poor is widening.What challenges the aging population will bring on health care system? Will the aging population significantly affect the medical expenditure? This series of questions to be answered.This article,first,presents the related academic research about the aging population and the medical expenditure from multiple dimensions.second,we analyze the comprehensively development situation of the aging population and the medical expenditure,including present situation,rural-urban difference and spatial evolution trend,then summarize the space theory of medical expenditure and the influence mechanism of aging population on medical expenditure.Third,according to Grossman's health capital demand theory,we select other factors affecting medical consumer spending,such as income,environment and education.Based on quantile regression model,a quantitative analysis from the Angle of time sequence,it is concluded that elderly dependency ratio has positive effect on medical expenditure,with the increase of quantile,the impact of weight also gradually to increase,but when medical expenditure increases to a certain stage,the influence of aging degree reduced.Again,using the Moran's I index verifies that medical expenditure exists space effect,and using spatial econometric model to study the national 31 provinces of an ageing population and medical expenditure,and carrying on the comparative analysis between urban and rural differences.Results show that: based on the perspective of urban and rural differences,the influence of aging population on medical expenditure is obviously different,the influence on town for the positive influence,and effect increased rapidly,while the rural population aging on medical expenditure has a negative impact,and was not significant.The influence of rural per capita income and average educational year on medical expenditure was positive,and the changing trend consistent with the town.In the last,according to the theoretical research and empirical analysis,we put forward the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions to deal with "silver hair tide" and the medical system reform in our country,which including the attention of pollution of the environment,the acceleration of the pension industry and the hierarchical diagnosis and treatment.