| Total fertility rate (TFR) is that in accordance with the assumption that women According to a year of age through child-bearing age, the average fertility of women of childbearing age in the number of children. China is the world's most populous country, the population is the most complex national study. China's first census in 10, five-year one percent population sampling survey (called on the census), due to China's great population base, the determination of the total fertility rate is never easy. This paper in 2005 in Fujian Province one percent sample survey of population-based data, with 1995 in Fujian Province one percent sample survey of population data, 2000 census data in Fujian Province, Monte Carlo (monte carlo) simulation method The total fertility rate calculated for the study.In short, the demographic analysis of the introduction of total fertility rate target, there are two meanings: (a) to determine the current fertility rate, the number of children women's reproductive life, (2) can compare different regions or different from the same area of women's reproductive years Level.First of all papers on the total fertility rate and the content of commonly used method of calculation, combined with the rest of the world's total fertility rate, to compare the two note. Monte Carlo simulation to establish the total fertility rate is calculated on the focus of this paper.Subsequently, the paper is based on the Monte Carlo method of the total fertility rate of the micro-simulation model, described in detail the age, death, fertility, birth and marriage, and so closely related to the incident module of the population, use of MATLAB the simulation and obtained The desired results. Selected sample of 1 million simulation, the simulation process about 10 hours.Immediately after the birth omitted the problem was analyzed. The general idea is to combine the 2000 census data and 1995, 2005 two one percent population sampling survey data, retained by the Census Act, the life table method, and other methods to lower the age The group omitted for an estimate, the estimated 2005 population of 1 per cent sample survey omitted the data of birth, to adjust 2005 total fertility rate.In addition to the adjustment method, the paper also on the 2005 one percent of the sample quality of the initial detection, according to 2000 census adjustment of the age structure of a sample survey of the age structure, also highlighted the common choice of Monte Carlo risk analysis assessment tools crystal ball on the population estimates were analyzed. Papers presented a detailed micro-simulation process and the total fertility rate adjustment programmes.In this paper, the simulation results: in 2005 the total fertility rate was 1.2085 in Fujian Province, and in 2005 one percent population sample survey of the original data is calculated by the results of anastomosis. This paper estimates the number of births omitted, the final adjustment of the total fertility rate is 1.68.
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