The Population Simulation And The Research Of Fertility Rate Mode Of Zhejiang Province-Comparing With That Of Korea

The fertility problems have always been a significant field in demography. The research on the reproduction and the reproduction model is not only the review and judgment of the female fertility process, but also the macro grasp of the population development trend.With the one-child policy, China’s total fertility rate decreased from 5.81 in 1970 to 1.4-1.5 in the past 10 years, far below the generational replacement 2.1, the world average and some developed countries.Owing to the fundamental changes of population reproduction and the national policy shifts,new propositions of fertility research are being put forward, but the judgment of fertility rate and reproductive model is still inevitably a priority issue during studying the population change trend.Fertility rate and fertility patterns are complementary, and the study on total fertility rate is based on the accurate estimation of fertility patterns.The fertility policy of china and korea shows similarity; besides,the population scale and its transformation of Zhejiang Province and Korea also have similarities. Therefore,taking Zhejiang Province for example,this paper contrasts the fertility policy, population demographic features,fertility rate and patterns,etc. between the two. In order to reflect the fertility rate and fertility patterns of Zhejiang Province,this paper amendes them by theoretical analysis.On the other side,this paper sets three plans by presetting the total fertility rate, life expectancy and net migration level,and then calculates population development trends of permanent residents through the cohort-component method so as to prospect Zhejiang’s population changes.The main conclusions of this paper are:(1)referring to the Korean model and universal two-child policy.the fertile peak age will gradually be postponed to 30-34 years in the next two decades, and there will be a joint and small rise in 35-39 years;(2)Under the preset plan,Zhejiang’s population would grow to more than 60 million.and children’s dependency ratio would approach 26-28%;(3) Under the preset plan,Zhejiang’s elderly population go up by half a millon annually on average;(4) Under the preset plan,because of the reflow of the countryside labor and ageing impact,Zhejiang Province’s working-age population would reduct 4.55-5.75 millon in the next two decades.As such, this paper points out that we need to guide family birth behavior,consummate family planning benefit-oriented mechanism,execute supporting policies, raise social security level,arrange rational distribution of population and so on.