The Optimal Combination Model In China's Population Prediction

This article does not consider the impact of a separate population of various factors,only consider the relationship between the time and the total population.we selected three models which are logistic,amended index model,the gray model to construct predict model of population.In order to reduce the prediction error of the system,we construct a population projection of the optimal combination model,and finally use the particle swarm optimization to determine the weights.By inspection,the combination of model is superior to the other three models.Use this model to predict the next 20 years' population,we expected in 2010 China's population will reach 1.352 billion,in 2020 China's population will reach 1,438 billion.