| Objective:By analyzing the characteristics of the population structure of Hechi City and longevity index, computing the Human Development Index (HDI), life expectancy(LE), Disability Adjusted Life Expectancy(DALE) of Hechi City and analysising the influencing factors, Study The relationship between longevity and population structure and life expectancy of Hechi City, provide reference for the formulation and adjustment of population policy in Hechi City and support the research on the longevity of the Red River basin.Methods:Mapping the population of pyramid of Hechi City, calculate the basic age structure, population burden coefficient, Human Development Index, population structure of Hechi City, calculating life expectancy and health life expectancy by using simple life table by Excel2007, execute the principal component analysis of 27 life expectancy factors, and execute the regression analysis of the life expectancy by SPSS17.0.Results:1. The population of Hechi City increased from 3595146 in 2000 to 3991899 in 2010 with a growth of 11.03%, sex ratio decreased from 111 to 108. The highest proportion of the population aged 85 and over,90 and over, 100 and over of Hechi City were 120.06/10000,23.96/10000 and 1.10/10000 in 2010, respectively. The highest proportion of the population aged 85 and over, 90 and over,100 and over of Guangxi were 65.20/10000,21.64/10000 and 0.61/10000 in 2010, respectively. The proportions of Hechi City were higher than the same period of the same age in Guangxi. Compared with 2000, the proportion of population aged 85 and over, population aged 90 and over, population aged 100 and over respectively increased by 150.84%,47.25% and 32.87%.2. In 2000, the proportion of children, the burden of children, the proportion of the elderly population, the burden of the elderly population, the child aged ratio and the median age were 23.42%,33.65%,6.99%,10.04%, 29.83%,28, respectively. In 2010, the proportion of children, the burden of children, the proportion of the elderly population, the burden of the elderly population, the child aged ratio and the median age were 20.07%,28.08%, 8.42%,11.78%,41.97%,31, respectively. The areas with the highest proportion of the population aged 85 and over,90 and over,100 and over of Hechi city were Donglan county (70.11/10000), Bama County (23.91/10000) and Bama County (3.34/10000) in 2000, respectively. The areas with the highest proportion of the population aged 85 and over,90 and over,100 and over of Hechi City were Du’an County (153.66/10000), Donglan County (36.24/10000) and Bama County (2.89/10000) in 2010, respectively. In 2000 and 2010, the population of pyramid of Hechi City were in the expansion type to the stationary phase and the contraction stage. In 2000 and 2010, the population structure of Hechi City was between adult and old age type and old age type. The average life expectancy of Hechi City in 2000 and 2010 was 70.82 years and 79.03 years, and 8.21 years increased by ten years. The average life expectancy for male in 2000 and 2010 in Hechi City was 67.46 years and 74.71 years, and 7.25 years increased by ten years. The average life expectancy of female in Hechi City in 2000 and 2010 was 74.58 years and 83.83 years, and 9.25 years increased by ten years.85 years old and above men, women, regardless of gender health life expectancy ratio were 90.76%,75.76%,94.15% in 2010 in Hechi City.3. The Human Development Index of Hechi City was 0.811. The counties with the highest and lowest Human Development Index were Jinchengjiang District 0.849, and Donglan County 0.731, respectively.4. Principal component regression analysis showed a positive correlation between life expectancy and education, environmental and health expenditure, and was negatively correlated with the total dependency ratio. The regression equation is:Zy=-0.041Zi+0.118Z2+0.097Z3-2.619.Concludions:1. In 2000 and 2010, the proportion of the population of longevity in Hechi City was higher than that of Guangxi in the same period.2. Compared with 2000, the proportion of the elderly population in Hechi City in 2010 increased, the proportion of young decreased, the child aged ratio increased, the population structure of Hechi City and Guangxi were all the same, namely old structure.3. In 2010, the average life expectancy of Hechi City was significantly increased, and higher than the level of Guangxi, the proportion of the population in each region was not consistent with the expected life expectancy.4. Hechi City fiscal policy should be inclined to health, environment and other aspects, while improving education and health care level, in order to cope with the impact of changes in the total dependency ratio.Objective:To explore the spatial distribution characteristics of longevity population in Hechi City.Methods:According to the sixth census data of Hechi City in 2010, making use of ArcGIS 10.2.2 software to make the space distribution map, trend analysis diagram and semivariogram, analysis of Moran’s I, Getis-Ord Gi, Global hotspot analysis, Kriging interpolation index, spatial scan statistics completed by SaTScan v9.4.2.Results:1. The highest and lowest proportion of the population aged 85 and over of Hechi City townships were Long Wan Town (1.39%) of Du’an county and Yue Li town(0.26%) of Nandan county respectively, a difference of 5.3 times. The townships of highest proportion of the population aged 85 and over were mainly distributed in the junction of Donglan county and Bama county in the western of Hechi City, Dahua County and Du’an County border area in the southern of Hechi City. The highest and lowest proportion of population aged 90 and over respectively were Xi Shan Xiang (6.611 per 1000) of Bama County and CeLing Xiang of Jinchengjiang District (0.664 per 1000), a difference of nearly 10 times. The highest proportion of 90 years old and above townships were mainly distributed in the Western of Hechi City, at the junction of Donglan county and Bama County, namely the LanMu Xiang, SanNong Xiang, SanShi Town, WuZhuan Town and XiShan Xiang, outside the west and south area of Hechi City, the proportions of population of 90 years and above were relatively low.2. The trend analysis showed that the western and southern part of Hechi City was a concentrated area of longevity population distribution.3. Semivariogram results showed that the distance of Hechi City longevity population was closer to the spatial homogeneity, and the southwest region of Hechi City was more intense.4. Moran’s I of population aged 85 and over results:Moran’s Index=0.575751, p-value=0.0000, z-score=10.144085, Moran’s I of population aged 90 and over results:Moran’s Index=0.607939, p-value=0.0000, z-score=10.692883, The longevity rate of the towns in Hechi City was not random, and had a certain spatial clustering.5. Getis-Ord Gi Hot spot analysis:The maximum and minimum values of GiZScore of population aged 85 and over were 4.37 and -3.41, respectively. GiZScore≥2.58, P≤0.01 longevity hot regional distribution mainly concentrated in Donglan County in the southwest, East Central Dahua County, southwest of Du’an County. GiZScore≤-2.58, P≤0.01 longevity cold regional distribution mainly concentrated in the north of TianE County and NanDan County. The maximum and minimum values of GiZScore of population aged 90 and over were 4.58 and -3.49, respectively. GiZScore≥2.58, P≤0.01 longevity hot regional distribution mainly concentrated in at the junction of Donglan County, southwest and northeast of Bama County, the Middle East of the DaHua county and DongMiao Xiang of Du’an County. GiZScore≤-2.58, P≤0.01 longevity cold regional distribution mainly concentrated in the north of TianE County and NanDan County, and Jinchengjiang district and Nandan County, Huanjiang County, Yizhou city and Du’an County border area.6. Local Indicators of Spatial Association results showed population aged 85 and over had statistically significant high-high association mode region was mainly distributed in Donglan county and Bama County junctionthe in the west of Hechi City, population aged 90 and over had statistically significant high-high association mode region was mainly distributed in Donglan County and Bama County in the west of Hechi City, Fengshan County and county border of Northern District, south of Hechi City and Dong Miao Xiang of Du’an County.7. Kriging interpolation analysis results showed that the longevity gathering area was at the junction of Donglan county and Bama County in the western of Hechi City and at the junction of Du’an County and Dahua Yao County in southern Hechi City.8. Spatial scan statistics of population aged 85 and over were obtained five statistically significant longevity aggregation area, namely longitude 107.319, latitude 24.3171 radius 13.7Km, east longitude 107.801, latitude 23.9986 radius 14.7Km, east longitude 108.096, latitude 24.1006 radius 11.1Km, east longitude 107.776, latitude 23.6233 radius 13.7Km, east longitude 108.239, latitude 23.8851 radius 11.6Km.Spatial scan statistics of population aged 90 and above were obtained five statistically significant longevity aggregation area, namely longitude 107.549, latitude 24.1807 radius 17Km, east longitude 107.53, latitude 24.5204 radius 16Km, east longitude 107.319, latitude 24.3171 radius 13Km, east longitude 107.745,latitude 23.846 radius 16Km, east longitude 107.776, latitude 23.6233 radius 13Km.Concludions:1. The spatial distribution of longevity population in Hechi City was not random, having a existence of spatial autocorrelation. The border area of Bama County and Donglan County in the west of Hechi City and the junction of Dahua County and Du’an County in the south of Hechi City were regions of the distribution of hot spots of longevity and high-high associated mode.2. The border area of Bama County and Donglan County in the west of Hechi City and the junction of Dahua County and Du’an County in the south of Hechi City were regions of longevity population concentration distribution based on Kriging interpolation prediction and spatial scan statistics. |
PDF Full Text Request