Research On The Factors Affecting The Commercial Box Office In China

The film industry has become the important pillar of the national economy.Chinese film market is booming,in recent years, the box office and moviegoers are showing explosive growth, high box office continues to refresh.Compared with the film market prosperity, the academic researches of film industry are less and less. In our country,the film’s income mainly comes from the movie box office,and the factors of affecting film box office are complex and changeable.This article explores the influence factors of Chinese commercial film,which pushed forward the development of China’s film market.This article selects 91 Chinese mainland domestic commercial films as the research object in 2015, by multiple linear regression and neural network model analysis, combining qualitative and quantitative, and explores the influence factors of Chinese commercial film affecting the box office and influence degree. On the basis of previous researches, as well as China’s film market, I build an index system of production, marketing and distribution three dimension, as follows: Production: film types, the story content(IP adaptation, whether a sequel), stars,directors, production technology, reputation score. Marketing: trailers and trailer statistics, index of wanting to see, the box office of advance screening,word of mouth comment numbers.Distribution capacity: schedule, distribution companies, competition strength. Finally, by using the models, I forecast and do empirical researches to eight domestic commercial movies released in 2016(until March).Empirical process: by SPSSsoftware multivariate linear regression analysis, the conclusion is: mouth comment numbers, average discharge rate,, show significant positive correlation for the film and significant negative correlation for box office, which abnormal box office in this paper, I has made a detailed analysis. Neural network analysis by Matlabsoftware, the top five factors of standardization importance: word-of-mouth comment numbers, the average discharge rate, index numbers of wanting to see, distribution companies, trailers and times of trailer playing. Finally, I predict eight new films with models.Concluding: the box office predicting result of the neural network model is more accurate.According to the conclusion, I put forward some suggestions about production,marketing,distribution,as well as decision theory with reference based on the film market.