On The Legal Predictive Theory Of American Realistic Jurisprudence

Confronted with the question "what is law", many jurists show their unique definitions. The prediction theory of law is the answer which is given by American Legal Realism. This definition of law breaks the dogma, brings the center of jurisprudence research from theory to practice and focuses on what the courts and officials really do. Thus, American Legal Realism has provided a new theory for the definition of law. The prediction theory of law is built on the basis of the philosophy of pragmatism and the criticism on the legal concept of formalist. The center of jurisprudence research has been shifted from the formalism to the judicial process. Therefore, in the American realists’point of view, the courts and officials’behaviors are the cores of prediction. The main subjects of prediction are lawyers and clients. Although the most frequently cited criticism on the prediction theory of law is that its subject coverage is not complete, in fact, in the context of the prediction theory, the judge can also be the main subject of prediction. The subject of prediction can improve the accuracy of prediction by means of statute law, judicial precedent, historical tradition, custom and so on. The prediction theory of law is American Legal Realism’s unique contribution to legal ontology. In the perspective of hermeneutics, it provides a legal opinion of "readers’determinism". The prediction theory not only lays the foundation for the subsequent development of American Legal Realism’s legal theories, but also provides a theoretical basis to a number of schools’ theories. However, due to the "bad man" perspective, the prediction theory has become an extremely external legal theory. As a result, Hart criticized that the prediction theory had ignored the "internal point of view" and had a narrow understanding of the role of law. The prediction theory of law emphasizes the value of changing, which corresponds to the inner spirit of common law. But it also ignores the situation that people obey and comply with the law voluntarily. Therefore, we must comprehensively carries on the investigation and research on the prediction theory oflaw.