The Quantitive Research Of Urban Residents' Consumption Of Guangdong Province

The paper researches two sides of urban residents' consumption of Guangdong province. One is the relationship between urban residents' consumption and disposable income, another is the consumption composition.About the relationship of consumption and income, there are four core theories:Keynes' Absolute Income Hypothesis,Duesenberry's Relative Income Hypothesis,Friedman'Permanent Income Hypothesis and Modigliani's Life-cycle Hypothesis.However,these theories all believe the relationship of income and consumption is linear,in addition,they can't lay long term aquilibrium and short term fluctuation down the same model to calculate their common effects on consumer behavior.Furthermore,they will reach nonsense regression if these data are non-smooth.ECM can play this role and raise forecasting degree of accuracy. So,the author takes cointegration as a main tool to study consumption function of Guangdong province.In the consumption composition,the author used the cross-section data of Guangdong province to found ELES model to describe the relations between residents's consumption composition and income,price and so on.