Research On Listed Companies' Financial Forecast System

Enterprises are in trouble because of financial risk, even bankrupt in recent years. But any enterprise's crisis is a gradual worsening course. It is very important and necessary to find out the problems in financial management in time, to realize the signal of financial risk as soon as possible, to forecast enterprise's financial risk, so as to take effective measures improve the management, prevent failure in a developing state by managers, investors and official department.With the development of enterprises, they will encounter various risks. If enterprises don't have the ability to resist the risk, or can't take effective measure to resolve the problem of risk, they will be probably trapped in financial crisis. When developing to some state, the financial risk will result in financial crises. Enterprises that trapped in financial crises face financial risk necessarily; conversely, it isn't the case. The thesis analyzes the relationship between financial risk and financial crisis, has summarized the domestic and international relevant research results of financial fraud.At present, we classify the method of financial crisis forecast into two categories: statistics and non-statistics. The thesis classifies these methods, and builds financial forecasting system with logistic regression analysis. The thesis has four parts in large:Part one: Introduce the problem that enterprises face on financial; put forward the researching significance and the main work and the structure of the thesis.Part two: Analyze the relationship between financial risk and financial crisis, characters and causes of formation; introduce theories of financial risk and financial crisis; summarize the domestic and international relevant research results of financial fraud.Part three: Select enterprises which deficit in 2004 as samples calculate financial data five years before; build financial forecasting system with logistic regression analysis on the base of the deficit data.Part four: Raise some advises and countermeasures on financial system.