The Study On The Application Of Cash Flow Information In The Financial Crisis Forecast Of Businesses

People prefer using traditional financial index based on the balance sheet and the income statement in setting up the financial crisis forecast models.But the cash situation may influence more in the financial crisis forecast.This paper studies on the cash flow index together with the traditional financial index,and analyzes the advantages of the cash flow index.Then builds two index systems based on the cash flow information and the traditional financial information.Using the listed companies' finance reports 2002-2006,this paper selects two samples,and builds two sets of financial crisis forecast models using the factorial analysis and logistic regression.Comparing the results of the two financial crisis forecast models and analyzing the differences between the two models together with the predictive ability,this paper explains the significance of the cash flow information in the financial crisis forecast,to make some explorative contributions for the further consummation work of the financial crisis forecast system.