A Study On Dempster-Shafer Evidence Theory And The Application Of Evidence Theory To Decision Making

As a method of dealing with uncertainty knowledge, the theory of evidence has been developing fast in the last several years. With its own characteristics in uncertainty knowledge expressing, it has a great advantage while solving uncertainty problems.With the theory of evidence being used in data fusion, target recognition, decision-making, predicting and artificial intelligence, how to combine conflicting evidence and how to construct the Bel function become the focus of study of the theory of evidence. This paper has made the following contributions:Firstly,the latest theory and application advances are summarized. The essence of each concept is analyzed. The problems in the theory of evidence are also described and analyzed.Secondly,the problem of conflicting evidence is studied which normally exists in the application of the theory of evidence. Several classical improved-methods are analyzed and compared. On the base of these methods, a new method of combine 2 evidence is presented. The results of dealing some conflict evidence examples with this new method show this method is reasonable.Thirdly,how to apply the theory of evidence to the field of decision-making is detailed described, especially for multi-objective decision making. A model based on the theory of evidence is presented.Finally, in order to make further research, some prospects of the theory of evidence are proposed.