Analyse And Predict The Positive Research In Current Situation Of Market Of Coastal Transportation Of Our Country

This text analyses to the state of development of market of coastal transportation of our country, and as the target with Volume of Freight Handled in Major Coastal Ports and China Coastal Bulk Freight Index (CCBFI ), adopt the time analytical method of the array, draw support from SPSS 13.0 statistical analysis software, set up Trend Projection model, Exponential Smoothing model, Autoregression model and Autoregression Integrated Moving Average model ,etc. predict models separately, and has carried on the parameter inspection to each model separately , has compared precision of each model, finally, in each to forecast horizon while being suitable according to every model, it predict and analyses our country coastal transportation market development in future.The purpose of this text's setting up prediction model of market of coastal transportation lies in offering for China Chang Jiang National Shipping (Group) Corporation's shipping project investment decision mainly, holding the market situation, evading the effective basis of the market risk, it has a positive realistic meaning and practical value for the science assessed to the project of strengthening too.This text divides four chapters altogether, its structure and main content are as follows:Chapter one ,a part of the introduction, has stated the background and meaning of the selected title, has introduced the main characteristic of this text.Chapter two made an introduction of the basic conception, characteristic, important concept, predicting type and basic step of the time series, and has explained time series analysis meaning and function, give emphasis to introduce the characteristics of various kinds of time series analysis methods , and introduce the time series analysis software — —SPSS briefly.Chapter three reviewed and looked into the distance to the volume of goods transported of market of coastal transportation of our country, and regard Volume of Freight Handled in Major Coastal Ports as the target especially , adopt the time analytic approach of the array to carry on modeling to analyse and predict.Chapter four reviewed and looked into the distance to the freight rate of market of coastal transportation of our country, and focal point as target, adopt time array analytic approach go on modeling analyse and predict with China Coastal Bulk Freight Index...