Models For Analyzing The Cultivated Land Supply Change

This paper is concentrated on a series of quantitative methods when analyzing on cultivated land supply change, including driving quantitative methods and spatial analysis methods. First, this paper analyzes the driving factors which influence the cultivated land supply change, and then focuses on the quantitative methods, such as Grey Relational Analysis Model, Hierachical Cluster Analysis Model, Principal Component Analysis Model, Linear Regression Model and Elastic Coefficient Model. These models analyze the synthetic function and effect of driving forces systemically, including analysis on features, analysis for differentiating the primary and the secondary, analysis on comprehensive effects, analysis on elasticity, analysis on prediction. The primary and characteristic factors can be extracted by Hierachical Cluster Analysis model or Principal Component Analysis model integrating with Grey Relational Analysis model. Analysis on prediction and elasticity are based on setting up multivariate linear regression model, which can predict the area of cultivated land in the future and found out which factors exert great influence on the cultivated land supply change. The precision of prediction is good by comparing with the prediction results to all the driving factors and to the primary and characteristic factors set up by regression model. That is to say, if the data of some driving factors are unable to obtain, we can set up regression model to the primary and characteristic factors, which can reduce the difficulty and the workload. By analysis on elasticity, the factors which the sensitive degree of them are high should be monitored especially, and realize the fore-warning and regulating and controlling system of the dynamic balance between cultivated land supply and demand. This paper studies on the overlap analysis, buffer analysis and spatial statistical analysis methods to analyze the spatial distribution features, spatial distribution change and region relativity. This paper gives a case study of Qionghai city Hainan Province in analyzing driving quantitative analysis and spatial analysis.