Study On Cultivated Land Change Driving Mechanism And Spatial Distribution Optimization Of Foshan

Farmland is land essence, The cultivated land protection is one of our basic state policies. It is not only the important measure&way to achieve food security strategy, but also one of the important guarantee to achieve sustainable economic and social development. At present, China is undergoing a period of rapid in which economic development and urbanization&industrialization is advancing by leaps and bounds. Therefore, the demand for construction land will further growth and the difficulty of the cultivated land protection is increasing. Facing the dilemma that the limited arable land resources have to guarantee both "dinner" and "construction",We should not only security industrialization and urbanization, but also to ensure the quality of cultivated land and food security still further. And the problem is more outstanding in the economic developed area and have become the "bottle-neck" to restricte the development of regional economy society.Taking the typical developed economy area--Foshan, Guangdong province, as an example, based on the statistics and spatial analysis methods, the dissertation analyzes the characteristics of cultivated land change in Foshan.And these comprehensive methods,including correlation analysis, area time series analysis, regression analysis etc.,are used in the dissertation to study the driving mechanism of foshan cultivated land use changes. And based on the scenario analysis combined with space simulation technology, three kinds of land dynamic change scene are constructed, and three situations of cultivated land space pattern are simulated. Under these situations,the dissertation analyzes the characteristics of land use of Foshan in2015and2030. Finally, according to the characteristics of construction land expansion and the spatial distribution of cultivated land in Foshan, The study puts forward systematically the policies and measures of cultivated land protection from the standpoints of technology, legal and economic. Research results show that:(1)The situation of cultivated land protection in Foshan is comparison severe.and the main driving factors of farmland change are population, GDP, per capita GDP and construction land, fixed assets investment and gross industrial production. The correlation analysis by SPSS shows that the quantity of cultivated land correlates dramaticlly with the population, GDP, per capita GDP and construction land, fixed assets investment and gross industrial production, and correlation coefficients are respectively-0.952、-0.891、-0.874、-0.893、-0.956and-0.869.The construction land expansion caused by above factors is the major effect factors of cultivated land space layout changing.(2) The major effect factor of cultivated land space layout changes is the construction land expansion. Foshan construction land can be divided into three decision-making modes,including the model of giving priority to construction land development, the mode of giving priority to protecting farmland and the mode of integrating the development and farmland protection. By using SLEUTH mode, the paper simulates the city expansion characteristics in2015and2030under three modes mentioned above. Based on scenario I, urban growth mode with centrifugal extension expansion is given priority to, construction land use change drastically. Although urban use economic output is growing rapidly, also will be accompanied with adverse consequences, such as cultivated land losing by large scale, ecological risk increasing quickly etc.; Based on scenario II, urban growth mode is centripetal filling and internal renewal and ecological protection mainly. Construction land use change rhythm and cultivated land change get a control, cultivated land and ecological get good protection, but land resources "bottleneck" restriction is relatively prominent; Based on scenario Ⅲ, the urban growth mode is primarily the construction land expansion in urban and rural areas, by edge growth complementary, have a tendency to sustainable development.The urban sprawl in the scale and speed is between two scenarios above. This is a "discount medium" construction land development mode of balancing development and protection requirements, and it is also the most reference value of the urban and rural land-use optimization scheme.(3) The spatial distribution characteristics of cultivated land is notable in different scenario. Based on scenario Ⅰ,farmland&mulberry fish ponds will reduce with large scale and fast speed, the cultivated land will reduce49%, at the rate of reduction2.2%per year. Mulberry fish ponds will reduce62%, at reducing rate2.8%per year. Farmland is mainly distributed in the west of Gaoming, the northern of Sanshui, and mulberry fish ponds are scattered mainly in Gaoming,Sanshui, Shunde and Nanhai. Mulberry fish ponds, this artificial ecosystem in Shunde and Nanhai will gradually disappear; Based on scenario Ⅱ, the loss of farmland&mulberry fish ponds, will be strictly controlled, the farmland will reduce13%or so, at reducing rate0.6%per year. Mulberry fish ponds, reduce about15%, at reducing rate around0.7%. The cultivated land is mainly distributed in the northeast and south of Sanshui, the northwest of Gaoming,and the southeast of Nanhai. Mulberry fish ponds are mainly distributed in Shunde, the southeast of Nanhai, the southwest of Sanshui and the northeast of Gaoming; Based on scenario Ⅲ, the shrinking of farmland and mulberry fish ponds are effectively controlled, the cultivated land will reduce29%, at the rate of reduction1.3%per year. Mulberry fish.ponds, reduce about36%, at reducing rate around1.6%per year. The main distribution of farmland is in northwest of Gaoming, the northeast of Sanshui,the southeastern of Nanhai. Mulberry fish ponds are mainly distributed in the mid-west of shunde,the southwest of Nanhai, and the northeast of Gaoming. Scenario Ⅲ is a fold medium farmland layout optimization scene, and it is also the most reference value of the farmland optimization scheme.(4) Finally,based on the simulation results and the development characteristics in Foshan, From the standpoints of technology, legal and economic,the dissertation puts forward the policies and measures of cultivated land protection, such as to implement the mechanisms of dynamic monitoring and advance-warning about construction land and the farmland, to implement construction land space control system, to establish incentive mechanism of cultivated land protection,...